O ANO DO ERRO DE RICARDO REIS - 2

Há um ano coloquei aqui um comentário a um prognóstico de Ricardo de Reis acerca da probabilidade, muito baixa, de a Grécia entrar em bancarrota (entre 1 e 2%), e de a Portugal acontecer o mesmo (entre 0,5 e 1%)*. Há dois anos atrás tinha colocado um link para um artigo publicado no Washington Post com o significativo título: Default Option We're Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back?,  

onde o autor previa em 6% a probabilidade de os EUA entrarem em default durante os seis anos seguintes.
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Constatei agora que o referido artigo foi retirado por conter um erro, como pode ler-se no site onde foi publicado: "This article incorrectly said that the total public debt held by the American people last September stood at $5.8 trillion, excluding debt issued to the Social Security Trust Fund or held by the Federal Reserve. In fact, that sum includes debt held by the Federal Reserve."

Lamentavelmente, a partir de pressupostos errados, as previsões ameaçam grande probabilidade de se confirmarem se os republicanos persistirem em não dar o seu acordo às propostas de Obama. O impensável é o que, apesar disso, acontece. Neste caso, não é impensável,  porque se trata de um risco calculado que ninguém quererá, um dia,  responder por ele perante a história.
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A América corre o risco de um default em Agosto, segundo um artigo publicado no Expresso que resume vários comentários sobre o assunto publicados na última semana. Este, por exemplo, tempera, de algum modo, o pessimismo geral:

US business borrowing growth fuels optimism

By Robin Harding in Washington

In a sign that US credit markets are healing, business borrowing grew faster during the first quarter of 2011 than at any time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Business credit rose at an annualised rate of 4 per cent, the fastest since the third quarter of 2008, according to flow of funds data published by the Federal Reserve on Thursday.

Debt owed by large companies, which are enjoying easy access to credit from capital markets at low interest rates, rose at an annualised rate of 7.1 per cent – the fastest since the first quarter of 2008.

The recovery in business borrowing adds to evidence that banks are starting to ease access to loans, especially for their largest, most creditworthy customers. That may fuel investment and help the stuttering US economic recovery.

But consumers continued to run down their balance sheets with the woes of the US housing sector mirrored by a 3.4 per cent annualised decline in mortgage debt.

The stock of mortgage debt has fallen 6 per cent from its peak in the first quarter of 2008 even before adjusting for inflation.

Overall growth in credit appeared to falter, slowing to an annualised pace of 2.3 per cent in the first quarter from 4.2 per cent in 2010, but was distorted by the government’s manoeuvring to avoid a breach of the debt limit.

The government reached the debt limit of $14,300bn imposed by Congress in May but began to take evasive action in the first quarter. Republicans in the House of Representatives are refusing to raise the limit without offsetting spending cuts.

Those measures are evident in the flow of funds, which shows that the government borrowed only an annualised $736bn in the first quarter compared with the $1,580bn that it borrowed in 2010.

However, rather than a big reduction in deficits, which continued at a similar pace, the fall reflected a Treasury campaign to run down its balance sheet to minimise the outstanding debt subject to the limit.

Since hitting the debt limit, the Treasury has begun to take what it calls “extraordinary measures” to preserve cash and avert a potential US default, arguing that would be catastrophic for the economy. But those tools are expected to be exhausted on August 2.

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*Act - risco de bancarrota acima de 47%  (Expresso on line, hoje, 13/6/2011)