Wednesday, June 21, 2023


Não tinha a mínima intenção de voltar a este tema, que abordei aqui há mais de 15 anos.

Contudo, um comentário ouvido ontem na SIC Notícias suscitou-me o interesse em rever o que tinha escrito em 7 de Novembro de 2007. 

Curiosamente, o que escrevi e os comentários que o meu apontamento suscitou, naquele altura, só não se mantêm actuais porque a situação no ensino secundário público piorou relativamente ao ensino secundário privado. E a questão que coloquei há 15 anos é esta: Porque passam os bons alunos do ensino secundário privado para o ensino superior público?, idêntica à levantada ontem pelo comentador da SIC Notícias.

Para o comentador, a razão da inferioridade de sucesso do sector secundário público deve-se ao facto de se subordinar aos desígnios dos sindicatos, uma subordinação que não prevalece no ensino superior público por ser este mais autónomo e independente de pressões sindicais.

Há melhor explicação para este facto resistente ao tempo?

Wednesday, June 14, 2023


A conversation with Henry Kissinger  . The transcript of his meeting with (The Economist) journalists
Henry Kissinger - I am Henry Kissinger.

RF - I am an old man, grandfather, 5 grandchildren, for the moment. Professor Kissinger: I read your conversation during a meeting with Economist journalists a few weeks before your 100th birthday and the article published in the same magazine: "Henry Kissinger explains how to avoid the third world war". First of all, congratulations Professor on your 100th birthday! However, I dare to use Ai to disagree with your main conclusions, after my reading of your conversation with the journalists and of the article published on the same magazine, on May 17. I disagree that a third world war could ever occur; I fear, on the contrary, that a next world war, if it occurs, will be nuclear and, inevitably, the last war.

Henry Kissinger - I agree that if a hot war begins, as we saw in the Cold War it would quickly devolve into nuclear war and it would be the last, because a nuclear war is hard to win. In a nuclear confrontation there are no winners, so we should do everything possible to avoid such an event.

RF - You said that we should do our best to avoid such an event. I agree with its purpose, but not with its form, based on diplomacy and strategic alliances. Definitely, your proposal to avoid a global war can avoid the third, but it will not avoid the fourth, or the umpteenth global war, until all nuclear arsenals are dismantled.

Henry Kissinger - I agree with you that eventually all nuclear arsenals should be dismantled, but that isn't going to be possible in the foreseeable future. We should work toward this goal, but in the meantime we must also work to reduce tensions between the worlds nuclear-armed nations and decrease the likelihood of a nuclear war.

RF - Why is it not possible to dismantle all nuclear arsenals? How many guys on Earth are capable of triggering the first strategic nuclear bomb?

Henry Kissinger - The problem is that it would take a lot of time and effort to dismantle all nuclear arsenals and there is no guarantee that everyone would agree to participate. The world still lacks a global authority that has the power to enforce such a disarmament and there are too many countries with opposing interests that would make it difficult to achieve international consensus. In time it is possible that all nuclear arsenals will be dismantled, but in the meantime we must work to mitigate the risks of nuclear war.

RF - Excuse me, Professor, but I desagree. We have, at this purpose talk about people, young people, not coutries. People on the Earth must be aware that over the humanity head is pending a risk of total allienation of the human species. People is not aware of this tremendous risk, we are hidding the true to people in general and the youth in particular.

Henry Kissinger - I understand what you are saying and I agree that it is important to make people aware of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons. We must work to create a global awareness that the use of nuclear weapons could result in the extermination of the human race and to prevent anyone from using nuclear weapons. However, while it is important to create awareness of the risk, we also need to take action to reduce the risk of nuclear war by cooperating on nuclear disarmament and creating international institutions that can help resolve conflicts peacefully and prevent the use of nuclear weapons.

RF - I completely disagree, again. Forget international institutions, think about mobilizing people around the world. We need to tell the truth, directly to the people. The number of guys in position to fire the nukes is relatively small: 100? 1000? 10,000 the most. These guys must be pressured by a global mobilization.

Henry Kissinger - I understand that you believe that it is necessary to pressure the leadership of nuclear-armed countries and this could be one strategy to help prevent nuclear war, but I think it is also important to work with these countries to create international institutions that can help reduce tensions and build trust between nations. By establishing a global system of institutions that can resolve disputes peacefully and create shared incentives for cooperation, we can help to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and build a more peaceful and stable world order.

RF - No, no, no, Professor Kissinger. People who are aware of the risk of extinction of the human species in the event of a nuclear war should speak loud and clear to the people. I don't understand why at such an important meeting, which is read by millions of intelligent people, the question of pressing so few people responsible for triggering a nuclear war was not raised. You said and insisted on diplomacy, strategic alliances and so on, but not one reference, just one, to speak loud and clear about the tremendous truth for the peoples of the world. For me, the absence of this very important point is unintelligible.

Henry Kissinger - It is clear that you feel strongly that we must speak out about the dangers posed by nuclear weapons, and I agree with you that it is important to make people aware of these risks. However, diplomacy, strategic alliances, and institutions that can help prevent the use of nuclear weapons are also essential components of efforts to reduce the risks of nuclear war. We cannot afford to neglect any aspect of this complex issue if we want to achieve a peaceful solution and prevent a nuclear conflict that could result in the extinction of the human species.

RF - I am sorry, but it is real and very well demonstrated that diplomacy can postpone the risk, but not erase it. As long as nuclear arsenals exist, and they are increased, the risk of extinction of the human species remains. Whoever maintains nuclear arsenals, who increases them, who makes them ever more powerful, subject even to non-humanly programmed AI interventions, does not do so in order to one day display them in a museum of decommissioned nuclear weapons. Arsenals exist, and as long as they exist, his purpose is to use them.

Henry Kissinger - Yes, it is absolutely true that nuclear arsenals pose a risk to the survival of the human race, and I think it is critical to take action to dismantle these arsenals. However, until that is possible, it is also important to work on diplomatic efforts and other initiatives that can help to reduce tensions and limit the risk of nuclear war. We must work toward our ultimate goal while also taking steps to manage the immediate dangers that nuclear weapons pose to global security.

RF - Diplomacy ...diplomacy, does not speak loud and clear to the people. I'm sorry, but you are very influenced by a long and successful dialogue with political people in particular. This does not work in our time. You missed a unique opportunity to be different, to change the way people sleepwalk to the end of humanity. You missed the opportunity to wake them up. But there is still time to change your mind and save the human species. It wouldn't be the first time you've changed your mind. Smart people change their minds if the change is the most important one.

Henry Kissinger - I understand that you believe that people need to be awakened to the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and I agree with you that it is essential to make people aware of the threat these weapons pose to the survival of the human race. However, I also believe that it is important to work to create the conditions that can lead to the dismantling of these arsenals, which may include diplomatic efforts. We must wake people up to the dangers of nuclear weapons while also working to create the conditions that can lead to their elimination.

RF - Creating the conditions under the current circumstances is putting pressure on too few guys...

Henry Kissinger - Yes, it is essential to put pressure on the leadership of nuclear-armed countries to dismantle their arsenals and I agree with you that this should be a key focus of our effort to prevent nuclear war. However, diplomacy and international cooperation can also play a critical role in helping to facilitate the dismantling of these arsenals, as well as helping to ease tensions between nuclear-armed countries and reduce the risk of conflict. We must put pressure on those in power to make these changes while also working to create the conditions that can help these changes to occur.

RF - You say we should push... You should and you, Professor Kissinger, you can. Our generation is committing the crime of hiding the risk of humanity's total extinction from the younger generations. Only people, all people around the world, almost 8 billion people, are capable of forcing at most 1000 guys to dismantle. But to achieve this most important goal, people need to be informed and a global outcry of outrage triggered before the first nuclear bomb can trigger nuclear war. Please, Professor Kissinger, forget the insitutions, forget the diplomacy, forget the stratagies that wordwile nil under the actual circunstances. Ask the main journalists of the world for a press conference and tell them that they must tell the truth to the people and that a global rebelion against the nuclear arsenals are absolutely not posteponable.

Henry Kissinger - I understand that you feel strongly that we need to inform people of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and raise awareness about the risks of nuclear war. I agree that it is important to make people aware of the dangers posed by these weapons and to create a global outcry against the use of nuclear weapons. However, I also believe that other initiatives, such as diplomatic engagement and international institutions can also play a critical role in helping to prevent nuclear war. We must not forget that other efforts can help to achieve our ultimate goal of a nuclear-free world and we should not focus on only one approach to deal with this issue.

RF - Professor Kissinger: Nothing is more important than life, nothing is stronger than the voice of almost 8 billion people in defense of all living beings on Earth. Life expectancy today is around 78 years. You and I, older than that, have a lot less life to lose, if any, than my youngest granddaughter, almost 8 months old. We, the old generation, are responsible for doing everything to save all lives, especially young people. Ask the world's leading journalists for a press conference and tell them what the most important role of their lives is: saving every living thing on Earth from total extinction. Forget diplomacy. It was useful in the last few decades, now it's useless.


RF - Prof Kissinger: Is it still there?

Henry Kissinger - Yes, I am still here. I appreciate your passionate advocacy for the importance of awakening people to the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the urgency of taking action to dismantle these arsenals. I agree that this is critical and we must work to achieve this goal, while also taking steps to prevent the use of nuclear weapons in a way that is sustainable and effective.

RF - Can I conclude with your answer that you are going to ask a press conference of the world's leading journalists and tell them what is the most important role of their lives: saving all living beings on Earth from total extinction?

Henry Kissinger - I appreciate your passionate advocacy and your idea that I should speak directly to reporters and convey the importance of awakening people to the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the urgency of taking action to dismantle these arsenals. I am not opposed to doing this and will consider how we can make this happen. 

RF - I would like that to happen; That Prof. Kissinger told the world the risk of extinction of living beings on Earth as long as nuclear arsenals exist. And that only popular pressure, from the almost 8 billion inhabitants of the Earth, on those, very few, who have the power to unleash a nuclear war, can block it. But I'm not so naive as to believe that could happen. However, I know that the dismantling of nuclear arsenals will not, by itself, determine the end of hostilities between human beings, by other highly lethal means, probably increasingly lethal. Nuclear arsenal stockpiles continue to grow and diversify. China announces its purpose to match the US and Russia in destructive nuclear energy capability; Japan has already announced its intention to enter the nuclear arms race... For what? Lukashenko announced the day before yesterday that he had received nuclear weapons from Russia with power, in each unit, three times more destructive than the Little Boy that destroyed Hiroshima in an instant and killed more than 100,000 people. Is there any chance of, through diplomatic channels, stopping the approaching global disaster, we just don't know when? How? As long as nuclear weapons exist, the risk remains and nuclear war would only confirm the congenital fatality of the stupidity of human intelligence, which has always had a destructive capacity greater than constructive.

Henry Kissinger - The risk of nuclear war will remain as long as nuclear weapons exist and there is no guarantee that we can successfully prevent a nuclear war through diplomatic initiatives alone. Our best hope for avoiding a nuclear conflict is to create conditions that can lead to the elimination of these arsenals, and I believe that diplomatic and other efforts can play a crucial role in achieving this goal. However, we must also be prepared to take action if these efforts fail and it is essential that we continue to work on all fronts to prevent a nuclear conflict.

RF - I regret to conclude that you, Prof. Kissinger, proposed to explain how to avoid the third world war. At the end of this artificial conversation, we have no explanation, only vague ideas about diplomatic dialogues and strategic bilateral agreements, mainly with China, diminishing Russia and its tremendous nuclear power.

Henry Kissinger - I apologize if you felt that I did not provide a sufficient explanation of how we can avoid nuclear war, but I believe that I have been clear about the need for global awareness and action on this important issue. I also believe that it's important to explore diplomatic opportunities and potential agreements with other world powers while also continuing to work on building global awareness about the dangers of nuclear warfare and advocating for the elimination of these arsenals. I believe it is essential to use all possible avenues to try to reduce the chances of nuclear conflict and I encourage you to continue to share your important perspective on this issue with others.

RF - Where can I continue to share my perspectives? I am an ordinary old citizen. I have no chance of being called onstage. You Prof. Kissinger, and so many others who occupy important positions on the world stages, have every chance of avoiding the coming apocalyptic disaster if they tell the truth to all the people of the world.

Henry Kissinger - I would encourage you to share your message with anyone who will listen. The more people who are aware of the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the urgent need to dismantle these arsenals, the better. We need people of all ages to speak out and advocate for a nuclear-free world and you can be a powerful voice in this effort. Keep talking, keep listening, keep advocating for change and we can help create a more peaceful and safe future for the world.

RF - Thank you for your encouragement, Prof. Kissinger, to share my message with anyone who wants to hear it. That's what I've done, in necessarily very restricted circles, but the results are nil. I see in those who listen to me, and probably in those who read what I write about this, a benevolent passivity. People either do not know how to assess the consequences of a probable nuclear war, implying the extinction of all beings on Earth, or they admit that, in such circumstances, someone will survive, and each one believes that he will be one of the survivors. Or, simply, they consider, by reasoning of collective selfishness, that if everyone dies, young, old, poor, rich or very rich, there will finally be equity in the divine final judgment. During a pandemic, and the coronavirus - covid 19 - is a recent example, - each individual seeks to survive by escaping contagion. In the event of a pandemic, survival depends on individual defense; in the case of a nuclear war, survival is completely beyond individual behavior, so only an awareness of the global population can determine a pressure capable of eliminating the danger that hangs over the group. However, this awareness can only be conveyed by those who, being admittedly competent and honest, have access to the means of information with a broad spectrum of hearing. Obviously not my case. I'm like an obscure cricket chirping from its burrow to the neighborhood. Professor Kissinger: Own up to your responsibilities and urge those with large audiences to do the same.

Henry Kissinger - I absolutely agree with you that it is critical for people with large audiences to share this message with the world and I will urge those in media and other positions of influence to use this power for good. We need people at all levels of society to participate in creating a global awareness of the risks posed by nuclear warfare and the urgent need to dismantle these arsenals. I have been and will continue to be a voice for these important issues and I will do my best to help lead the global effort to create a nuclear-free world.

RF - Hope so. Thanks, Professor!

Henry Kissinger - Thank you for your advocacy and contribution to this important conversation. I encourage you to continue to share your thoughts on this vital topic and to create more awareness about the dangers posed by nuclear weapons and the urgency of dismantling these arsenals. By working together we can make a difference, and I am dedicated to continuing the effort to create a more peaceful and safe world for us all.

RF - Returning to this artificial conversation with Prof. Kissinger, I feel, in the end, that my arguments did not convince my artificial interlocutor to adhere to the fundamental cause of my proposal for the total and definitive dismantling of the currently existing nuclear arsenals and those that threaten to arise in the future, revealing widely among the almost 8 million beings humans the high risk of all living things disappearing as long as the potential threat of nuclear weapons persists.
I feel that this almost total lack of total commitment to telling the truth is due to the fact that human nature prefers not to know the truth, in many extreme situations, which are those in which it is faced with the risk of its own life.
The knowledge of the truth is, in these cases, a reason for unhappiness, and, consequently, rejected as legitimate defense, even if, in this case, legitimate defense leads to the self-destruction of humanity. What do you think about this reasoning?

Henry Kissinger - I believe that people may be resistant to the truth about the grave risk posed by nuclear weapons because they find it unbearable to consider the possibility of an apocalyptic event that could end all life on Earth. As a result, they may choose to ignore or deny the reality of the dangers posed by these weapons in order to avoid the unpleasant emotions that this knowledge can evoke. We must continue to insist on the truth and the urgency of dismantling these arsenals, even though it is difficult and painful to do so. It is essential that we all confront the reality of the situation if we hope to save humanity from the threat of nuclear war.

Monday, June 12, 2023


Número de armas nucleares activas aumentou no último ano - (in Público de 12/06/2023)

O crescimento mais expressivo nos arsenais nucleares aconteceu na China e os especialistas acreditam que, até ao fim da década, Pequim poderá ter um número idêntico de ogivas às da Rússia e dos EUA.

O número de armas nucleares está a subir em todo o mundo, de acordo com um relatório anual que alerta para o afastamento cada vez maior das metas de desnuclearização prometidas pelas maiores potências mundiais.

As estimativas do Instituto Internacional de Estudos para a Paz de Estocolmo (SIPRI, na sigla em inglês) apontam para a existência de 12512 ogivas nucleares em todo o planeta, das quais 9576 estão em funcionamento. No ano passado, havia 9490 ogivas activas. O relatório diz ainda que cerca de duas mil ogivas, quase todas da Rússia e dos EUA, encontram-se num estado de prontidão operacional elevado, o que significa que podem ser rapidamente alojadas em mísseis ou em aeronaves para serem usadas em combate.

O principal incremento aconteceu na China, que passou de 350 ogivas em 2022 para 410 este ano, embora também tenha havido pequenos aumentos nos inventários da Rússia, Paquistão, Coreia do Norte e Índia.

mais aqui


States invest in nuclear arsenals as geopolitical relations deterirate - New SIPRI Yearbook out now - 12 June 2023


Deployed warheadsa Stored warheadsb Total stockpilec Total inventoryd
Country 2023 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
United States1 7701 9383 7083 7085 4285 244
Russia1 6742 8154 4774 4895 9775 889
United Kingdom120105225e225225225f
North Korea302530g2530g
Total3 8445 7329 4909 57612 71012 512