SEM METER MEDO A NINGUÉM?

Número de armas nucleares activas aumentou no último ano - (in Público de 12/06/2023)

O crescimento mais expressivo nos arsenais nucleares aconteceu na China e os especialistas acreditam que, até ao fim da década, Pequim poderá ter um número idêntico de ogivas às da Rússia e dos EUA.

O número de armas nucleares está a subir em todo o mundo, de acordo com um relatório anual que alerta para o afastamento cada vez maior das metas de desnuclearização prometidas pelas maiores potências mundiais.

As estimativas do Instituto Internacional de Estudos para a Paz de Estocolmo (SIPRI, na sigla em inglês) apontam para a existência de 12512 ogivas nucleares em todo o planeta, das quais 9576 estão em funcionamento. No ano passado, havia 9490 ogivas activas. O relatório diz ainda que cerca de duas mil ogivas, quase todas da Rússia e dos EUA, encontram-se num estado de prontidão operacional elevado, o que significa que podem ser rapidamente alojadas em mísseis ou em aeronaves para serem usadas em combate.

O principal incremento aconteceu na China, que passou de 350 ogivas em 2022 para 410 este ano, embora também tenha havido pequenos aumentos nos inventários da Rússia, Paquistão, Coreia do Norte e Índia.

mais aqui

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States invest in nuclear arsenals as geopolitical relations deterirate - New SIPRI Yearbook out now - 12 June 2023

World nuclear forces, January 2023

		Deployed warheadsa	Stored warheadsb	Total stockpilec		Total inventoryd
	Country	2023	2023	2022	2023	2022	2023
	United States	1 770	1 938	3 708	3 708	5 428	5 244
	Russia	1 674	2 815	4 477	4 489	5 977	5 889
	United Kingdom	120	105	225e	225	225	225f
	France	280	10	290	290	290	290
	China	–	410	350	410	350	410
	India	–	164	160	164	160	164
	Pakistan	–	170	165	170	165	170
	North Korea	–	30	25	30g	25	30g
	Israel	–	90	90	90	90	90
	Total	3 844	5 732	9 490	9 576	12 710	12 512

 

– = nil or a negligible value.
 

Notes: All estimates are approximate. SIPRI revises its world nuclear forces data each year based on new information and updates to earlier assessments. The data for Jan. 2023 replaces all previously published SIPRI data on world nuclear forces. Countries are ordered by date of first known nuclear test. There is no conclusive open-source evidence that Israel has tested its nuclear weapons. The figures for Russia and the USA do not necessarily correspond to those in their 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) declarations because of the treaty’s counting rules.
^a ‘Deployed warheads’ refers to warheads placed on missiles or located on bases with operational forces.
^b ‘Stored warheads’ refers to stored or reserve warheads that would require some preparation (e.g. transport and loading on to launchers) before they could be deployed.
^c ‘Total stockpile’ refers to warheads that are intended for use by the armed forces.
^d ‘Total inventory’ includes both stockpiled warheads and retired warheads awaiting dismantlement.
^e SIPRI previously estimated that the UK had about 45 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement; however, SIPRI’s assessment as of Jan. 2023 is that these warheads are likely to be reconstituted to become part of the UK’s growing stockpile over the coming years and the stockpile number remained at 225 in Jan. 2022.
^f The British government declared in 2010 that its nuclear weapon inventory would not exceed 225 warheads. It is estimated here that the inventory remained at that number in Jan. 2023. A planned reduction to an inventory of 180 warheads by the mid 2020s was ended by a government review published in 2021. The review introduced a new ceiling of 260 warheads.
^g Information about the status and capability of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal comes with significant uncertainty. North Korea might have produced enough fissile material to build 50–70 nuclear warheads; however, it is likely that it has assembled fewer warheads, perhaps around 30.

Table: SIPRI © Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2023.