Sunday, November 15, 2009

FREAKONOMICS


Freakonomics gets super freaky
Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner are to blame for the global financial crisis.
.
See, back in 2005, they wrote "Freakonomics," a wildly successful book brimming with interesting stories about why incentives matter and how actions have unintended consequences. Indeed, incentives do matter, and actions (or publications) do have unintended consequences: Their book made economists around the world more inclined to come up with cute little analyses of the business of being a drug dealer or the impact of a first name on a child's success. And that distracted them, so they didn't notice the giant housing and credit bubbles that in hindsight were plain to see. A global collapse ensued.
That's all nonsense, of course. The forces that led to the current economic troubles were far too big for any one book, or even one current of economic thought, to have caused them. The argument that the Freakonomics guys are to blame for the crisis is provocative and clever and sounds vaguely plausible. It may even contain a kernel of truth. But it fundamentally defies any clear-headed look at reality.
In other words, it's just like many of the anecdotes that fill "Superfreakonomics," the sequel to the original bestseller. The new volume includes sections on the economics of being a prostitute and how the mining of bank data can identify terrorists, and an interesting argument that car seats may not make older children safer than seat belts do. But more than a few parts of the book seem designed to distort reality rather than illuminate it, to elevate the provocative over the true.
... ... ...

But Levitt and Dubner take Gladwellism to its logical extreme: "Superfreakonomics" doesn't really have a broader argument. The authors acknowledge in the opening pages that their book has no unifying theme, beyond the banality that "people respond to incentives."
So instead of offering up a bunch of quirky stories of questionable reliability to make an argument that feels coherent, they offer up contrarianism for its own sake.
Just what you'd expect from two guys who caused the financial crisis.
Neil Irwin writes about the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve for The Washington Post.

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