O DÓLAR E A GUERRA DO PETRÓLEO

origem : A Destreza das Dúvidas

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A influência do crescimento da massa monetária no crescimento dos produtos petrolíferos foi levantada na blogosfera por J Miranda no Blasfémias e comentada por Luis Aguiar-Conraria (A Destreza das Dúvidas). Trata-se de uma questão que só fará sentido se, à partida, for precisado o objecto em discussão e, nomedamente, de que preços estamos a falar (reais, nominais, em dólares, em euros, em ouro, como na hipótese ilustrada acima por Luís Aguiar-Conraria).

Mas ainda que a discussão de situe apenas ao nível da correlação entre a massa monetária e os preços (do petróleo, nesta caso) não me parece, contrariamente ao que afirma J Miranda que os preços cresçam em resposta ao aumento da massa monetária (M3). A correlação estabelece-se de forma inversa sendo o aumento dos preços determinante (em que medida estamos por saber) no aumento da massa monetária em circulação com efeitos reprodutivos nos preços.

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Salvo melhor opinião.

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Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, left, talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, right, back to camera as Iran's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, center looks on, during the closing ceremony of the third OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Summit in Riyadh in kingdom of Saudi Arabia on Sunday Nov. 18, 2007. A man at 2nd right is unidentified.

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OPEC to Study Effect of Dollar on Prices
By SEBASTIAN ABBOTThe Associated Press Sunday, November 18, 2007; 12:54 PM

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- OPEC will study the weak U.S. dollar's effect on the oil cartel's earnings and investigate the possibility of a currency basket, Iran's oil minister said Sunday.

"We have agreed to set up a committee consisting of oil and finance ministers from OPEC countries to study the impact of the dollar on oil prices," Gholam Hussein Nozari told Dow Jones Newswires at a rare heads-of-state OPEC summit.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani also confirmed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was forming the committee, which would "submit to OPEC its recommendation on a basket of currencies that OPEC members will deal with." He did not give a timeline for the recommendation.

Though a final statement issued Sunday at the end of the summit did not specifically mention the dollar or a committee, it did say the oil-producing group would look into ways of improving financial cooperation.

OPEC will "study ways and means of enhancing financial cooperation among OPEC ... including proposals by some of the heads of state and governments in their statements to the summit," OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said, reading the statement.

Iran and Venezuela have been pressuring OPEC to study the effect of the falling dollar. But the suggestions were met with resistance from other OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, who warned Friday that even talking publicly about the currency's decline could further hurt its value.

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned oil producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and has eroded the value of their dollar reserves. Cartel officials have resisted pressure to increase oil production to ease prices.
During his final remarks, el-Badri stressed he was committed to supply _ but did not mention changing oil outputs, as expected.

"We affirm our commitment ... to continue providing adequate, timely, efficient, economic and reliable petroleum supplies to the world market," he said.
The run-up to the meeting was dominated by speculation over whether OPEC would raise production following recent oil price increases that have closed in on $100.

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman called on OPEC to increase production earlier this week, but cartel officials have said they will hold off any decision until the group meets next month in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

They have also cast doubt on the effect any output hike would have on oil prices, saying the recent rise has been driven by the falling dollar and financial speculation by investment funds rather than any supply shortage.

The meeting in Riyadh, with heads of states and delegates from 12 of the world's biggest oil-producing nations, was the third full OPEC summit since the organization was created in 1960. Libya's oil policy head, Shokri Ghanem, confirmed to Dow Jones that Libya is to host the next heads of state summit in 2012.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/18/AR2007111800325.html