Friday, February 27, 2009


Imparidade - 1 qualidade ou característica do que é ímpar 2 falta de paridade; desigualdade, disparidade. (dicionário Houaiss)
Para A. Morais e J.P.Machado, imparidade também pode significar inferioridade.
As palavras também têm a sua moda. E, algumas, depois de esgotadas voltam à rua.
Imparidade era palavra fora de moda até que a crise a foi buscar para vestir o que não tinha cobertura.
No negócio Fino da Caixa, o presidente do banco do Estado, além de outros argumentos com menos consistência que a gelatina, afirmava ontem que, se a Caixa não tivesse pago 25% acima da cotação em bolsa pela participação de quase 10% da Cimpor, teria que registar uma perda de 65 milhões de euros em consequência da imparidade observada entre o valor da dívida de M Fino e o valor em bolsa das acções por ele dadas como garantia do empréstimo feito pela Caixa.
Desembrulhando o argumento, o que o presidente da Caixa disse foi: Como não nos convinha reflectir uma perda nos resultados, valorizámos as acções do sr. Fino pelo valor da dívida. Deixou de haver dívida, deixou de existir imparidade; deixando de haver imparidade deixou de haver perdas. Tudo lucro, portanto. Além disso, o sr. Fino logo que o entenda, dentro de três anos, pode voltar à posse das suas acções.
O que significa que os activos da Caixa não são valorizados pelos valores de cotação em bolsa mas pelos valores de aquisição. A imparidade subsiste, mas não se regista. À espera que o sr. Fino, se a bolsa recuperar até lá, venha buscar as acções que agora vendeu com opção de recompra.
A criatividade contabilística, que está na origem de grande parte dos escândalos financeiros que estão a abalar a economia, e a provocar o crescimento do desemprego em todo o mundo, continua à solta em Portugal e logo, por estranho que pudesse parecer, também no banco do Estado.
Aliás, como já referi aqui, este negócio Fino, na sequência e na precedência de outros idênticos realizados pela Caixa, não é mais que a paridade daqueles que foram realizados pela administração C. Ferreira & A. Vara (agora presidente e vice-presidente do BCP) quando financiaram os negócios de casino que agora estoiram nas mãos dos portugueses que não foram à festa.
Imparidade, a partir de agora, passou também a ser sinónimo de vigarice contabilística. Mas o governador do BP não dá por nada.
A propósito deste negócio Fino, recordo-me de uma situação semelhante, quando, há já largos anos, estive numa empresa de mármores e granitos, nas proximidade de Évora.
Ao olhar para o balanço, fiquei surpreendido com o valor das existências. E a minha surpresa aumentou quando, ao visitar o parque das pedras, não vislumbrei bloco que valesse grande coisa. No fim da visita, perguntei ao contabilista onde paravam as pedras que valiam o que estava inscrito nas contas. O sr. Luz, ainda me lembro do nome, olhou para mim e disse resignado: sr. F., vê aquele bloco? É o único que temos para transformação. É ele que vale tudo quanto temos.
Convenhamos que quase 10% da Cimpor são outra coisa. Mas a habilidade contabilística usada num caso e noutro é a mesma: a camuflagem de uma imparidade. Que no caso da Cimpor safou o sr. Fino de pagar o que devia.


A Chata said...

Gostava que me desse a sua opinião.

Será que, mais uma vez, a Alemanha vai falhar uma tentativa de dominar a Europa?

Will Germany deliver on the Faustian bargain that created monetary union?

If Der Spiegel is correct, the German finance ministry is drafting rescue plans to prevent default on the edges of the eurozone leading to a full-blown collapse of Europe's monetary system.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 6:57AM GMT 23 Feb 2009

This is an entirely appropriate policy in economic terms. One dreads to think what would happen if the world's twin reserve currency were to disintegrate at this stage.

But what about the solemn pledge to voters by Germany's political elites – promiscuously given over the years – that monetary union would never leave them on the hook for the debts of half Europe?
The vast imbalances that have been allowed to build up under the seductive protection of EMU leave German taxpayers facing bail-out liabilities that exceed the cost of reparations after the First World War, in proportional terms. The political ground has not been prepared for this. EMU was foisted on the German people without a referendum, in the face of deep public scepticism and scathing criticisms by the professoriat. This failure to secure a mandate for such a revolutionary undertaking is coming back to haunt them.
Berlin is at last having to deliver on the Faustian bargain made by Germany's political class when it swapped the D-Mark for French acquiescence in reunification. It must either go the whole way towards EMU fiscal union and take responsibility for Italy's public debt (111pc of GDP by next year), Austria's loans to Eastern Europe (70pc of GDP), the adventures of Ireland's 'Canary Dwarf' (€400bn or so in liabilities), and Spain's housing collapse (1m unsold homes), or jeopardize its half-century investment in the political order of post-war Europe. Letting EMU fail at this stage would have far higher costs than never having launched the project in the first place.

Architects of EMU were well aware that a one-size-fits-all monetary policy for vastly disparate nations would create serious tensions over time. They gambled that this would work to their advantage. The EU would be forced to create new machinery to safeguard its investment in the euro. It would be a "beneficial crisis", bringing about the great leap forward to full union.

We are about to find out if they were right.

A Chata said...

Revisitando o meu arquivo encontrei isto.
Em Janeiro de 2007
( por acaso do mesmo articulista do artigo anterior):

Britain poised for three years of rapid growth

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 2:40AM GMT 05 Jan 2007

Britain will have the fastest-growing economy in the G7 bloc of rich countries this year, powering ahead as business picks up the baton from exhausted consumers.

Forecasting group Oxford Economics said in its 2007 global outlook that London's booming banks and financial services would lift UK growth to 2.7pc, compared with 2.6pc in America, 2.3pc in the eurozone, and 2pc in Japan.

The economy will then accelerate for a further two years, reaching growth of 3.1pc in 2009.

The ultra-bullish prediction came amid a slew of fresh data showing the economy on the brink of overheating already, prompting warnings from economists that the Bank of England may have to raise interests two or three more times.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply PMI index found confidence in the service sector has surged to a 10-year high as firms rush to hire new staff.

At the same time, house prices appear to have surged again, with Nationwide data showing prices rose 10.5pc in the year to December at an average of £172,065.
There were 129,000 new mortgage approvals worth £9.8bn in December, the highest level in three years, according Bank of England figures yesterday. Credit card loans and overdrafts slipped slightly from £1.1bn to £1bn.

Oxford Economics, which compiles the data for Ernst & Young's influential Item Club report, said the housing boom would come down to earth gently over coming months without the need for a monetary squeeze, citing lower returns on buy-to-let property and the catch-up effect mortgage adjustments from past rate rises.
Katherine Booker, the group's UK economist, said the interest rate cycle had already peaked, arguing that lower oil costs and subdued wage demands would keep a lid on inflation.
"Our forecasts show inflation undershooting the 2pc target. We don't expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise rates further, and we may even see a cut in early 2008," she said.
The group said business investment had jumped 8.2pc over the last year, helping to rebalance an economy over-dependent on consumer borrowing.
The surge in services more than offset a slide in volume of exports and lacklustre manufacturing, which fizzled in the second half of 2006 but now makes up less than 20pc of total output. The benign view was echoed yesterday by David Blanchflower, one of two MPC members to vote against the quarter point rate rise to 5pc in November.
He said the influx of an estimated 500,000 East Europeans since the EU's "big bang" enlargement in 2004 had helped cap wages pressures – though it was not the cause of Britain's relentless upward creep in the jobless rate.
"The entry of recent migrants appears to have improved the workings of the labour market, reduced wage and inflationary pressures, and lowered the natural rate in unemployment," he said, adding that pay deals were likely to remain "subdued in the near future".
Echoing recent comments by the bank's Governor Mervyn King, Mr Blanchflower said there was "no evidence of significant wage resistance or second round effects from the recent oil shock".
Howard Archer, UK economist at Global Insight, said high debt levels and mounting concerns about job losses and pensions would gradually take the excess fizz out of the economy.
"The services survey clearly adds weight to the case for another rate rise, possibly as early as February. However, we believe that it is still not yet a 'done deal'," he said
"We suspect that growing affordability pressures resulting from higher interest rates, muted real earnings growth and elevated house prices will increasingly feed through over the coming months to squeeze buyers out of the market," he said.

But Lombard Street Research said the housing boom risked hurtling "out of control", with secured lending growing 11.4pc over the past year.
"The Bank of England may have missed the chance to avoid a bubble," it said. The group predicts interest rates could reach 5.75pc by the end of the year.

""The economy will then accelerate for a further two years, reaching growth of 3.1pc in 2009."

"Oxford Economics, which compiles the data for Ernst & Young's influential Item Club report, said the housing boom would come down to earth gently over coming months "

""The entry of recent migrants appears to have improved the workings of the labour market, reduced wage and inflationary pressures, and lowered the natural rate in unemployment," he said, adding that pay deals were likely to remain "subdued in the near future"."

"Howard Archer, UK economist at Global Insight, said high debt levels and mounting concerns about job losses and pensions would gradually take the excess fizz out of the economy."

Se não fosse trágico era hilariante...

A Chata said...

Havia sinais...

Em 2006:

Insolvencies hit record high

Hilary Osborne
Friday August 4, 2006
Guardian Unlimited

The number of people unable to meet debt repayments reached record levels in the second three months of this year, as more than 26,000 people were declared insolvent, official figures showed today.
The figure marked a 10% increase on the previous three months and a 66% increase on the same period last year. Analysts suggest the UK's £1 trillion combined debt could mean the problem will continue to grow.
At the end of a week that has seen all the major banks report an increase in bad debts, the government's Insolvency Service said 14,915 people were declared bankrupt in the second quarter of 2006. This was a 3.3% decrease on the figure for January-March this year, but a 32.5% increase on the number in April-June last year.


By Malcolm Hurlston, Chairman of the Consumer Credit Counselling Service
(Filed: 24/09/2006)

Personal debt – a crisis in waiting?

"Unsecured" debt - above and beyond mortgages, and mostly on credit cards - now stands at almost £220bn, an average of more than £9,000 per household.

Britain becomes 'never, never land' as personal debt runs out of control

UK borrowers account for one third of unsecured debt in western Europe
On average, a Briton has twice the debt of a European

Total consumer debt in the UK is at a record £1.3 trillion
New debt last year came to an unprecedented £215bn
Citizens Advice faced 1.25 million new debt cases last year - the figure is rising

By David Prosser, Personal Finance Editor
Published: 28 September 2006

(titulo enganador)
Lloyds bad debts growth eases

By Stephen Seawright
Last Updated: 8:16am GMT 11/12/2006

Lloyds TSB expects bad debt charges among its retail customers this year to "be no higher" than the first half despite continued growth in higher levels of bankruptcies and individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).
The comments come after bad debts at Lloyds' retail business suffered a 16pc rise to £632m in the first six months. In August chief executive Eric Daniels struck out at what he saw as an increasingly cavalier attitude of consumers to paying off their debts following the introduction of new bankruptcy laws.
Insolvencies across Britain are running at record levels with 15,416 people going bankrupt between July and September and a further 12,228 taking out IVAs. The total of 27,644 insolvencies was an increase on the 26,021 in the previous quarter.

Número de famílias em apuro financeiro aumentou seis vezes desde 2000

São cada vez mais os casos de pessoas com rendimentos elevados com problemas de sobreendividamento
A família-tipo sobreendividada portuguesa tem três elementos e um rendimento mensal à volta de mil euros.
Pedidos de apoio disparam
O número de processos abertos pela Deco entre 2000 e o final do passado mês de Novembro foi de 3437. Faltando contabilizar ainda os dados de Dezembro, o número provisório de casos abertos em 2006 é de 840, ou seja, quase seis vezes mais do que os pedidos de apoio formulados em 2000 (152), primeiro ano em que funcionou o gabinete de apoio ao sobreendividado daquela associação.
Ao longo dos anos, o número de processos tem crescido sempre: 241 em 2001; 379 em 2002; 515 em 2003; 573 em 2004; e 737 em 2005.

(Jornal Publico)

Inicio de 2007:

HSBC issues bad debt warning

By Dominic White
Last Updated: 11:09am GMT 08/02/2007

• Local bank, global problem

HSBC stunned investors late last night with a stark warning that its bad debt provisions would rise by $1.7bn as a result of US borrowers defaulting on their mortgages.
Shares in Europe's biggest bank fell 20p to 911p in early trading.
"It is clear that the level of loan impairment provisions to be accounted for as at the end of 2006 in respect of Mortgage Services operations will be higher than is reflected in current market estimates.";jsessionid=TXP5S45WZOLBLQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/02/08/cnhsbc08.xml

11 800 chômeurs de plus en août

Publié le 28 septembre 2007
Actualisé le 28 septembre 2007 : 09h15

Le nombre de chômeurs reste toutefois au-dessous de la barre de deux millions de personnes, avec 1 970 600 demandeurs d'emploi inscrits à l'ANPE à la fin août.

La dette publique de la France atteint 1.216.4 milliards d'euros
28.09.07 | 13h01
PARIS (Reuters) - La dette publique de la France a augmenté de 32,3 milliards d'euros au deuxième trimestre 2007 pour atteindre 1.216,4 milliards d'euros soit environ 66,6% du PIB contre 1.184,1 milliards et 65,4% du PIB à fin mars, selon les données publiées par l'Insee.,14-0,39-32610741@7-37,0.html

Précarité : le pavé de Delors dans la campagne
Publié le 18 novembre 2006
Actualisé le 18 novembre 2006 : 07h26
Archambault/Le Figaro

Dans un rapport au premier ministre, le président du Cerc explique le sentiment de perte de pouvoir d'achat des Français par la précarité de l'emploi.

Publié le 19 janvier 2007 à 12h03
France/défaillances d'entreprises: +7%
Le nombre de défaillances d'entreprises jugées en France au cours du mois d'août 2006 a progressé de 7% par rapport au mois de juillet, atteignant 3.380 en données corrigées des variations saisonnières, a annoncé aujourd'hui l'Insee.
(Avec AFP).

Jobless total at seven-year high

Last Updated: 11:23am GMT 15/11/2006

Unemployment reached a seven-year high today as the jobless total jumped to 1.7m and the number of people working in manufacturing slumped to a 165-year low.
The number of people looking for work increased by 27,000 in the three months to September to reach its worst level since the summer of 1999.

2,600 jobs axed at Thomsons

Julia Kollewe
Friday December 15, 2006
Guardian Unlimited
Tourism and shipping group TUI is slashing 2,600 jobs at its UK operation, Thomson Holidays, over the next two to three years.

Centrica to axe 1,300 jobs

Julia Kollewe
Friday December 15, 2006
Guardian Unlimited
British Gas owner Centrica plans to axe 1,300 jobs and make its first price cut in five years next spring in the face of stiff competition.

Publié le 15 décembre 2006 à 11h04
France Télécom: 9.400 départs fin 2006
France Télécom indique que 9.400 des 22.000 départs de salariés prévus d'ici 2008 seront effectifs fin décembre, soit 45% du plan de suppression d'emplois annoncé en février par le groupe.
(Avec AFP).

Pfizer to axe 8,000 jobs and close more plants
By Stephen Foley in New York
Published: 23 January 2007

Alcatel-Lucent prevé suprimir entre 15.000 y 20.000 puestos de trabajo
La compañía confirma que los malos resultados del último trimestre de 2006 le han obligado a pensar en amplificar su programa de ajuste de empleos
AGENCIAS - Madrid - 06/02/2007

Bayer va supprimer 950 emplois à Berlin
Le groupe allemand de chimie-pharmacie Bayer a annoncé aujourd'hui la suppression de 950 emplois à Berlin après le rachat du laboratoire Schering, basé dans la capitale allemande.
(Avec AFP).

Publié le 28 février 2007 à 14h06

US pros angry as IBM jobs move to India


...was getting ready to lay-off a staggering 150,000 workers in the US, with many of the jobs going to India.
“For two years Big Blue has been ramping up its operations in India and China with what I have been told is the ultimate goal of laying off at least one American worker for every overseas hire,” Cringely writes. “The big plan is to continue until at least half of Global Services, or about 150,000 workers, have been cut from the US division .”

On the news beat in Mumbai, California

• US website recruits reporters living in India
• Journalists cover council meetings via internet

Dan Glaister in Los Angeles
Saturday May 12, 2007
The Guardian
The two reporters, who will watch council proceedings live on the internet, come cheap by Californian standards: the Mumbai post will attract $12,000 (£6,000), the one in Bangalore, $7,200.
Reuters news agency has a staff of 1,000 in Bangalore, including 100 journalists writing financial news stories. The Boston Globe also recently announced some jobs would be outsourced to India. But this is the first time that a reporting brief has been handed to journalists on the other side of the world.

Rui Fonseca said...

"Se não fosse trágico era hilariante..."


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