Friday, April 24, 2009


Forget global imbalances, it is now a Sino-American imbalance
Brad Setser Apr 24, 2009
Or perhaps a Sino-North Atlantic or Sino-Euramerican imbalance. Europe plays a supporting role in the drama.
If oil averages $50 or so this year and $60 or so next year – and if intra-European surpluses and deficits are netted out – the world’s macroeconomic imbalances reduce to the United States external deficit (which the IMF estimates will be under 3% of US GDP in 09), a somewhat smaller EU deficit and China’s 10% of GDP surplus.
On the surplus side of the global ledger, the IMF forecasts that there will soon be China – and almost no one else.


A Chata said...

As reservas da China não estão paradas...

Cash-rich China courts the Caspian
By M K Bhadrakumar

Apr 18, 2009

But the slowing down of the Great Game bears a deceptive appearance. China gains out of any changing equations.
Of all the major economies of the world, it is in China that the government's 4 trillion yuan (US$585 billion) stimulus package may have begun showing results, which puts the economy in a "better-than-expected" shape, as Premier Wen Jiabao said on Thursday.

China's prospects as the first major economy to recover gives it a crucial role to lead the world economy as a whole and the Central Asian region in particular.

Following up on a $25 billion loan to Russia that China dished out in February, it has agreed to lend $10 billion to Kazakhstan. China expects both the recipients to reciprocate by bolstering their energy supplies to China.
Beijing would have taken into account these emergent circumstances when it signed an unprecedented "oil-for-loans" agreement with Russia on February 17.
In terms of the agreement, China Development Bank will lend $25 billion at 6% annual interest to Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft and oil pipeline monopoly Transneft. In return, China will receive roughly 20 million tons of oil annually from Russia starting from 2011 for a 20-year period. The total volume of the Russian oil supplies within this framework is the equivalent of about 4% of China's current consumption of oil and about 8% of China's present imports. Rosneft receives $15 billion out of the Chinese loan.
In this scenario, China has responded to the Kazakh request for help. Two agreements were signed in Beijing on Thursday during a five-day visit (April 15-19) by Nazarbayev providing for a Chinese loan amounting to $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right, among other things, to take a big stake in the Central Asian country's energy sector. China's Eximbank will lend the state-owned Development Bank of Kazakhstan US$5 billion. China's state-run Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC) will in turn extend a $5 billion loan to KazMunaiGas, the Kazakh national oil company.
China is not a new investor in Kazakhstan's energy sector. It already owns Aktobemunaigas, which produces 120,000 barrels of oil per day (b/d) and China holds 67% of PetroKazakhstan, which produces 150000 b/d. It is also an equal partner, along with the Kazakh state oil company KazMunaiGas, in the 200,000 b/d oil pipeline from the Caspian to China's Xinjiang border.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

Nestas alturas quem tem dinheiro faz bons negócios.

A Chata said...

Claro que a China se não começar a melhorar o nivel de vida da sua população, a incentivar o consumo interno arrisca-se a não ter a quem vender
Este era objectivo final do mentor deste processo, Deng XiaoPing, resta saber se a natureza himana o vai permitir.

Assim como Greenspan nunca pensou que os gestores das grandes empresas se estivessem borrifando para os accionistas e só pensassem nos seus bonus chorudos vamos ver se o governo chinês vai conseguir que os empresários habituados a trabalhadores/escravos vão permitir que o nível de salários aumente para permitir um maior consumo.

Li um artigo no Asia Times, sobre um livro que saiu na China, 'China is Not Happy', em que os autores pretenderam assinalar os ataques de outras nações à China e às suas politicas e o resultado não foi o esperado.

The Chinese are not happy
By Antoaneta Bezlova
Apr 23, 2009

BEIJING - At first it was nothing out of the ordinary. A book intriguingly titled China Is Not Happy was expected to generate a buzz because it claimed to detail the world's most populous nation and aspiring superpower's resentment of foreign abuses.

The book was the joint effort of five Chinese nationalistic writers (Song Shaojun, Wang Xiaodong, Huang Jisu, Song Qiang and Liu Yang) and was written as a direct response to issues surrounding Tibet, the Olympic Torch upset in Paris and other incidents that angered many in China last year.

But, the book appears to have struck a cord with Chinese readers on a level that it was perhaps not intended to. In a surprisingtwist, the volume - which set out to arouse national indignation at foreign powers' treatment of China - has burst open the Chinese people's grievances with their own government.
Waves of commentary have filtered out of cyberspace and into the pages of some state-sanctioned media.

"Outwardly, this is a book about patriotism," said commentator Chang Ping in the liberal Southern Weekend newspaper. "The problem is that it does not help China solve its problems by revealing them. On the opposite, it wants China to succeed by hating other countries and by castigating Chinese people that like other countries."

But, "Indeed, how can Chinese people be happy?" asked Chang. "Their children drink poisoned milk and get kidney stones; husbands go underground to dig coal and get buried there; petitioners who line up to complain are sent to mental hospitals. Meanwhile, even the cigarettes smoked by public officials cost a fortune."


(Inter Press Service)

Rui Fonseca said...

"Claro que a China se não começar a melhorar o nivel de vida da sua população, a incentivar o consumo interno arrisca-se a não ter a quem vender "

O crescimento do mercado interno chinês já é notável e vai continuar.

O problema maior da China é a transição para um regime onde a liberdade de expressão tenha um crescimento idêntico.

Há quem assegure que o confucionismo resolve de forma sustentada a situação aparentemente contraditória de uma economia de mercado em liberdade condicionada.