O reinado do dólar está a chegar ao fim?
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Uma comissão presidida por Joseph Stiglitz, no âmbito das Nações Unidas, avançou num relatório preliminar divulgado em Junho algumas alternativas que pretendem assegurar maior estabilidade ao sistema monetário internacional. Do ponto de vista dos norte-americanos, argumenta Stiglitz que a mudança favorecerá também os seus interesses, na medida em que, cessando as vantagens que a sua moeda até agora lhes garantiu no contexto do sistema financeiro mundial, cessará também os malefícios que o dólar, enquanto moeda de reserva, tem induzido na economia norte-americana, e que a crise tornou mais evidentes.
Não é a primeira vez que Stiglitz defende a criação de uma unidade monetária internacional que possa substituir o dólar como moeda de referência nas transacções internacionais. Em 11 de Maio transcrevi aqui no Aliás algumas declarações feitas por ele na altura.
Esta proposta, que apoia outra dos chineses, anteriormente divulgada, no mesmo sentido, (vd. aqui ) não será, contudo, facilmente digerível por muitos interesses em jogo e pelo orgulho norte-americano, e consequentemente, dificilmente convencerá a maior parte da opinião pública.
Conseguirão as Nações Unidas avançar para uma nova ordem financeira internacional sem o apoio, explícito ou implícito, dos EUA? Stiglitz pensa que sim, e que para os EUA é preferìvel participar nessa alteração do que ir a reboque dela.
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O euro tem-se imposto sem a participação do Reino Unido e a extinção da libra. Acontecerá o mesmo ao dólar?
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The Buck Stops Here. Gone are the days when the dollar reigned supreme.Joseph E. Stiglitz
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Beware of deficit fetishism.
Last week we learned that the national debt is likely to grow by more than $9 billion. That's not great news -- no one likes a big deficit -- but President Obama inherited an economic mess from the Bush administration, and the cleanup comes with an inevitably high price tag. We're paying it now.
There are no easy options. When financial crises strike, economic growth declines and living standards drop, resulting in lower tax revenues and greater need for government assistance -- all of which leads to higher fiscal imbalances.
What really matters is not the size of the deficit but how we're spending our money. If we expand our debt in order to make high-return, productive investments, the economy can become stronger than if we slash expenditures.
There are other consequences, however, that we're missing in the debate over all this red ink. Our budget deficit, as well as the Federal Reserve's ballooning lending programs and other financial obligations, will accelerate a process already well underway -- a changing role for the U.S. dollar in the global economy.
The domino effect is straightforward: Higher deficits spark market concerns over future inflation; concerns of inflation contribute to a weaker dollar; and both come together to undermine the greenback's role as a reliable store of value around the world. Right now, with so much unused capacity in the American economy and so much unemployment -- likely to persist for at least another year or two -- the more pressing worry is deflation (a general decrease in prices), not inflation. But as the economy eventually recovers, the possibility of inflation will loom, and with forward-looking markets, worries about the future often play out in the present. Anxieties about future inflation can lead to a weaker dollar today.
Last week we learned that the national debt is likely to grow by more than $9 billion. That's not great news -- no one likes a big deficit -- but President Obama inherited an economic mess from the Bush administration, and the cleanup comes with an inevitably high price tag. We're paying it now.
There are no easy options. When financial crises strike, economic growth declines and living standards drop, resulting in lower tax revenues and greater need for government assistance -- all of which leads to higher fiscal imbalances.
What really matters is not the size of the deficit but how we're spending our money. If we expand our debt in order to make high-return, productive investments, the economy can become stronger than if we slash expenditures.
There are other consequences, however, that we're missing in the debate over all this red ink. Our budget deficit, as well as the Federal Reserve's ballooning lending programs and other financial obligations, will accelerate a process already well underway -- a changing role for the U.S. dollar in the global economy.
The domino effect is straightforward: Higher deficits spark market concerns over future inflation; concerns of inflation contribute to a weaker dollar; and both come together to undermine the greenback's role as a reliable store of value around the world. Right now, with so much unused capacity in the American economy and so much unemployment -- likely to persist for at least another year or two -- the more pressing worry is deflation (a general decrease in prices), not inflation. But as the economy eventually recovers, the possibility of inflation will loom, and with forward-looking markets, worries about the future often play out in the present. Anxieties about future inflation can lead to a weaker dollar today.
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