Friday, January 23, 2009
TENTAMES
MARÉS
Thursday, January 22, 2009
UPSIDE DOWN
O que é que pretende um investidor como Joe Berardo quando "considera que os governantes terão de regressar às nacionalizações para salvar empregos?"
Nacionalizações da banca, do BCP, por exemplo, onde Berardo tem uma participação relevante?
No rescaldo das nacionalizações que se seguiram ao 11 de Março de 1975, recordo-me de alguns empresários terem sugerido ao governo a nacionalização das suas empresas por não conseguirem suportar as condições que a conjuntura lhes impunha, nomeadamente as reivindicações sindicais (das comissões de trabalhadores, sobretudo).
Para outros, as nacionalizações apareceram como uma oportunidade para se desvincularem de projectos que mais tarde ou mais cedo falhariam por, já antes de 25 Abril de 74, estarem condenados.
A maior parte, contudo, viu nas nacionalizações um roubo.
Em que grupo teremos de considerar Joe Berardo? No último, não, seguramente, uma vez que ele próprio considera que as nacionalizações são imperativas para salvar empregos.
A menos que, como o compadre alentejano, considere que as nacionalizações dos bois são boas e recomendam-se se forem nacionalizados os bois dos outros.
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Joe Berardo: "Tudo o que aprendi até agora foi por água abaixo"
Joe Berardo diz que a crise financeira veio pôr em causa tudo que aprendeu em décadas de investimentos. Teve de renegociar as garantias e recorrer às reservas pessoais. Sobre os negócios, vê com bons olhos a fusão da Zon e da Sonaecom, e considera que os governantes terão de regressar às nacionalizações para salvar empregos.
GUILHOTINA?
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
DE TANGA?
A Standard & Poor’s cortou hoje o "rating" da dívida pública da República Portuguesa, de AA- para A+, afirmando que as reformas estruturais delineadas pelo Governo são insuficientes para o país continuar a merecer a notação anterior.
Corte do "rating" domina abertura dos noticiários da SIC e TVI
S&P antecipa "pressão significativa" nos bancos portugueses
Governo "firmemente empenhado em implementar medidas para combater a crise"
Medidas anti-crise vão colocar défice em 4% nos próximos três anos
Avaliação de risco do Santander Totta cai com a de Portugal
"Não esperamos melhorias substanciais no potencial de crescimento de longo prazo"
Portugal tem um dos piores riscos da dívida da Zona Euro
EXUBERANTE IRRACIONALIDADE
Ontem, dia da Inauguration, as bolsas caíram desalmadamente nos EUA. O índice S&P 500 caiu 5,28%. É curioso, no entanto, notar que o dia da Inauguration tem sido marcado por quedas nas últimas décadas. Nenhuma atingiu, contudo, a dimensão atingida ontem. Carter viu a sua posse maracada por uma queda de 0,85%; Reagan, queda de 2%; George H W Bush, queda de 0,1%; Clinton, queda de 0,4%; George W Bush, sem alteração.
O índice médio Dow Jones industrial desceu abaixo dos 8000 pontos, reflectindo uma queda de 4%, a sua pior performance em dia de Inauguration desde a sua criação há 124 anos. O Nasdaq acompanhou a tendência do Standard & Poor´s 500 atrás referida, e caiu mais de 5%.
Um comportamento tão dissonante com o entusiasmo transbordante de 2 milhões de pessoas que acorreram de todo o lado da União para aclamar Obama deveu-se, segundo os analistas, ao desencanto dos investidores com as notícias de agravamento dos problemas na indústria, a insufiuciência da resposta do governo e do plano de recuperação.
Por outro lado, a possibilidade de nacionalizações da banca, em debate por todo o lado, em consequência do anúncio de péssimos resultados dos grandes bancos, abala imparavelmente a confiança dos investidores.
HOJE, as principais Bolsas dos Estados Unidos recuperaram, encerrando em terreno positivo, impulsionadas pelo maior ganho dos últimos dois meses no grupo dos títulos financeiros dada a convicção de que o plano Barack Obama vai revitalizar a banca.
Entretanto, o petróleo dispara mais de 7%.
Só não percebe isto quem não frequenta Casinos. Suponho eu.
O SENHOR QUE SE SEGUE
O Barclays já afundou mais de 35%, e desvalorizou 68,5% nas últimas sete sessões, perante a especulação de que poderá vir a ser forçado a efectuar mais amortizações e a ser nacionalizado. O banco britânico vale agora 4,7 mil milhões de euros, o que compara com a capitalização bolsista de 8,7 mil milhões de euros de há sete sessões.
BES em mínimos de quase 12 anos lidera perdas entre a banca nacional
O início do ano está a revelar-se difícil para o sector bancário europeu, e Portugal não é excepção. O BES já atingiu esta manhã o nível mais baixo desde Abril de 1997 e é o banco que mais perde na bolsa nacional em percentagem.
ELA PODE VOLTAR

Tuesday, January 20, 2009
O PROBLEMA ESTÁ NOS BANCOS
NEW YORK, Jan. 20 -- New doubts about the health of major banks triggered sharp losses on Wall Street Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrial average shedding 4 percent and the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 stock index plunging more than 5 percent.
Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup fell to fresh lows, leading the Dow down 332 points to 7949 points, its worst closing level since Nov. 20.
The S&P 500 lost 45 points to close at 805 points, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq ended 88 points lower at 1441 points.
"The problem is first and foremost in the financial sector and it's spreading out in all other manners," said Richard Cripps, chief investment officer at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore. "It's just hard to think about trying to own stocks if we can't get the banking system on some kind of solid footing, and it seems to be on anything but that at the moment."
The Royal Bank of Scotland moved a step closer toward full government control in Britain over the weekend, renewing worries about the stability of banks around the globe. Meanwhile, State Street, the largest money manager for institutional investors such as pensions and mutual funds, jolted the market when it said paper losses on bond investments had climbed from $3.3 billion on Sept. 30 to $6.3 billion at the end of December.
OBAMA - DISCURSO INAUGURAL
My fellow citizens:I thank President Bush for his service to our nation as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath.
The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age.
Homes have been lost, jobs shed, businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly, our schools fail too many, and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable, but no less profound, is a sapping of confidence across our land; a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real, they are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this America: They will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less.
It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.
Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things -- some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor -- who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life. For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West, endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died in places Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sahn.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions -- that time has surely passed.
Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done.
The state of our economy calls for action: bold and swift. And we will act not only to create new jobs but to lay a new foundation for growth.
We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.
We will restore science to its rightful place and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its costs.
We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.
All this we can do. All this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done, what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them, that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long, no longer apply.
The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works, whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.
Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end.
And those of us who manage the public's knowledge will be held to account, to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day, because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched.
But this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control. The nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous.
The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on the ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart -- not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.
Our founding fathers faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations.
Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake.
And so, to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.
They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use. Our security emanates from the justness of our cause; the force of our example; the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy, guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort, even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We'll begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard- earned peace in Afghanistan.
With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat and roll back the specter of a warming planet.
We will not apologize for our way of life nor will we waver in its defense.
And for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that, "Our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken. You cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you."
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness.
We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus, and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth.
And because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.
To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds.
And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders, nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages.
We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service: a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves.
And yet, at this moment, a moment that will define a generation, it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies.
It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break; the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours.
It is the firefighter's courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent's willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new, the instruments with which we meet them may be new, but those values upon which our success depends, honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism -- these things are old.
These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history.
What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility -- a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence: the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed, why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall. And why a man whose father less than 60 years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day in remembrance of who we are and how far we have traveled.
In the year of America's birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by nine campfires on the shores of an icy river.
The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood.
At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
"Let it be told to the future world that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet it."
America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words; with hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come; let it be said by our children's children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God's grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.
Thank you. God bless you.
And God bless the United States of America.
TÍTULOS DO DIA
Constâncio acusa Cadilhe de ter uma "visão egocêntrica" do seu papel
Constâncio admite que perspectivas económicas são piores que há duas semanas
Lloyds afunda quase 50% para mínimo de duas décadas com receios de nacionalização
Washington empolgada com tomada de posse
BMW reduz horários de trabalho a 26 mil funcionários
Fiat fica com 35% da Chrysler sem investir capital
Mitsubishi vai suspender temporariamente a produção em três fábricas no Japão
Maior retalhista alemã anuncia corte de 15 mil postos de trabalho
Receitas da Porto Bay atingem os 53 milhões em 2008
George Soros considera que plano económico dos EUA é insuficiente
Petróleo abaixo dos 33 dólares em Nova Iorque
Euribor caem pela 70ª sessão para mínimos de 2005
Portugueses são dos que mais gastam em férias
Os portugueses são dos viajantes que mais pagam por estadias em hotéis, tanto dentro como fora de Portugal, revela o Hotel Price Index do site Hotels.com. Madrid e Nova Iorque são as cidades mais visitadas pelos portugueses.
MARTE CLOSE- UP

OBAMA
Há mais de dois anos, mais precisamente em 14/12/2006, comentava e perguntava-me aqui "...Daqui a dois anos haverá novamente eleições presidenciais, e o caroussel começa a dar os primeiros sintomas de arranque, perfilando-se, desde já como mais prováveis competidores nas primárias do partido Democrata a senadora Hillary Clinton e o senador Barack Obama. Estará a democracia norte-americana preparada para eleger, em 2008, uma mulher ou um negro? Ou uma negra, já que do lado Republicano a actual Secretária de Estado tem sido avançada como hipótese" .Inauguration Day: Embodying the nation's hopes for better days ahead
Monday, January 19, 2009
OS BANCOS E AS BOLSAS
JPMorgan prevê que BCP, BES e BPI precisem de 3,1 mil milhões de euros
Gordon Brown apela a outros governos para seguirem o seu exemplo
One Idea for Banks: Quarantine Bad Assets: U.S. Officials Look To Solution Used By Sweden in '91
Angry Investors Launch Lawsuits: Class-Actions Mount Despite Uncertain Payouts for Those Who Lost Money
EU: recession will be deep and long-lasting





