CRASH!, DIZ ELE

Continuam a pairar muitos agoiros de crise no ar. Tavares Moreira comenta no Quarta República o aviso do Royal Scotish Bank para um crash iminente em Setembro.

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Na era da Internet isto não é um aviso mas uma maldição: No momento seguinte está toda a gente avisada. Imagine-se que outros bancos afinam pelo mesmo diapasão: O crash é imparável, não há passarada que não se ponha ao fresco tão depressa quanto possível e as bolsas vão bater no fundo. Se a tripulação do barco arrombado grita que o barco se afunda, o barco afunda-se mesmo. Quem é que ganhará com o aviso?

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Mr. Bob Janjuah, responsável pela estratégia de crédito do RBS e autor do aviso do crash em Setembro, que parece ter ganho reputação como aúgure ao ter previsto a crise financeira despoletada pelo descalabro das subprime, de cada vez que agora abre a boca põe de boca aberta todo o mundo à sua volta.

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Eu, que não tenho qualquer argumento ou razão musculada que possa calar a boca do Janjuah, tenho uma interrogação do tamanho de quatro biliões de libras, tanto a quanto montam as perdas do RBS no ano passado: Porque não avisou ele, pelos vistos, quem lhe paga os ordenados e os bónus, das estratégias de crédito que teriam safado o RBS?

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Gritar que o barco se afunda, qualquer um é capaz. Repará-lo é que é notável, mas difícil. E não é, se bem se percebe, a vocação de Janjuah.

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The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks."A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.[...]"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage."Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.[...]

Royal Bank Of Scotland Issues Crash Alert
Doomsayers are not uncommon in any market, particularly in times of turmoil or even in times of excessive good fortune. Technical analysts are usually the first to make the call to start building an Ark as soon as one interpretation of the tea leaves sends out warning bells, often only to find that - shucks - it was not the beginning of Wave 5 after all but really just the Fibonacci retracement of Wave C, or some such thing. Flamboyant investors such as George Soros can also get absorbed with their own power, as Soros admitted to doing after calling the end of the world in 1997, and then of course there are the so-called "perma-bears", of which Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach is the patron, who can call a crash for so long that eventually, statistics suggest, they must be right.
But there is little doubting the world is currently very jittery as stock markets fail to recover from earlier lows, credit markets just seem to keep being bogged in the mire, and now inflation is running rampant at a time when global economic growth is slowing. So it is not without consideration that the Royal Bank of Scotland should suddenly issue a Crash warning, and who better to break the news than the London Daily Telegraph's serial doomsayer, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.
The RBS has advised its clients to brace for a fully-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks, Evans-Pritchard reports. "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us," suggested the bank's credit strategist Bob Janjuah, ''so be prepared."
The RBS report suggests the US S&P 500 stock index is likely to fall by more than 300 points to 1050 (22%) by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets. Such a slide, on top of what has already occurred, would represent one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
The most unnerving thing about Janjuah's assertion is that this time last year the analyst made a similar warning call about an impending global credit crisis. He has been feted in the City ever since.
Janjuah expects Wall Street to rally into July as the effects of the US government's fiscal stimulus package continues to provide momentum. While it might have been the case that Americans would put their stimulus hand-outs to good use, such as paying down debt or saving the money, the recent monthly US retail sales figures proved emphatically otherwise. So when the music stops...
The US Fed and the European Central Bank both face what Janjuah refers to as a Hobson's Choice - which is defined as a free choice where only one option is offered. Faced with the prospect of workers losing their jobs and being refused credit as the economies of the US and Europe slow, central bankers cannot respond with "easy money" (rate cuts) because oil and food costs are pushing headline inflation to levels which are unsettling the markets. Inflation is the enemy of any investment, as it erodes profit and capital over time. The higher inflation the faster money is lost without actually doing anything. So the world may just have to set itself for much lower global growth in order to beat the inflation menace, Janjuah suggests.
But if the central banks fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation, risky assets are no longer worth holding as the required return to simply break even on the investment is increased by the higher level of inflation. The response is to sell stocks and bonds and move into cash. Cash does not conquer inflation, but it's better than losing money when investments are sold down.
"The Fed," says Janjuah, "is in panic mode". It is true that one minute the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates, the next minute to hike them, and now to do nothing.
However the ECB seems determined to raise its cash rate and fight inflation at the expense of the wobbling European economy. Already consumer demand and confidence in Europe are showing signs of crashing.
The good news - if there can be good news - is that the price of oil should finally come down following the big asset sell-off. But not before debt deflation has set in next year.
Thus spake Janjuah - credit market oracle.

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=582298

Royal Bank of Scotland poised to reveal £4bn lossBy Peter Thal Larsen, Jane Croft and Kate Burgess in LondonPublished: April 18 2008 21:32 Last updated: April 18 2008 21:58Royal Bank of Scotland is set to reveal about £4bn (€5bn) of losses from the credit turmoil next week in a move likely further to anger shareholders already dismayed at plans for a rights issue of at least £10bn.Expected losses at RBS underscore pressure on the world’s largest banks from the continued slide in the credit markets during March. Citigroup on Friday announced a $5.1bn (€3.2bn) loss for the first quarter and nearly $16bn in writedowns.But news of the RBS rights issue and Citigroup’s loss prompted a sharp rally in stock markets in the US and Europe on Friday on hopes that leading banks were closer to dealing with the worst of their problems.RBS’s rights issue is a sign that European banks, which have lagged behind US rivals in raising fresh capital, are getting to grips with the need to strengthen balance sheets.The FTSE 100 index closed up 1.3 per cent, boosted by a rise in bank shares, while the FTSE Eurofirst ended up 2.4 per cent. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose more than 2 per cent in early afternoon trading.RBS shares rose almost 5 per cent to 374p, while Citigroup’s shares closed 4.5 per cent higher at $25.11 in New York trading.People familiar with the matter said the board of RBS would meet this weekend to approve the losses and the rights issue, which would be fully underwritten by banks including Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and UBS.The proposed rights issue has triggered calls from some shareholders for the departure of Sir Fred Goodwin, RBS’s chief executive, who masterminded the bank’s role in leading the €71bn break-up bid for ABN Amro last summer.Both Sir Fred and Sir Tom McKillop, RBS chairman, have in recent weeks insisted that the bank did not need fresh capital.Several large investors in RBS said the surprise announcement raised questions about the role of the whole board. “I should think the board of Royal Bank is severely chastened,” said one. Another said: “The chairman’s credibility has turned to mush.”

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/lofiversion/index.php/t30764.html