Europe must learn from Japan’s experience
Wolfgang Munchau
Our Great Recession has been compared with several crises of the past, but Japan’s lost decade is perhaps most relevant. This is not because of the way the two crises developed – we do not yet know what will happen to us – but because of our failure to learn from Japan’s mistakes. Otto von Bismarck said only fools would learn from their own mistakes, while he preferred to learn from the mistakes of others. We are mostly fools.
I am particularly struck by the similarity of the policy responses in Japan then and Europe today. Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute in Washington, made the following observation in a book* he published in 2000 about the parallels between Japan’s lost decade and US policy during the savings and loan crisis. He wrote: “Bank regulators issued a litany of announcements meant to be reassuring about the extent of the bad loan problem and the adequacy of Japanese banks’ capital, each of which was correctly disbelieved by other financial firms, foreign banks, and by Japanese savers as understating the problem.”
This is exactly what is happening in Europe today. Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country’s banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany’s annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.
Our Great Recession has been compared with several crises of the past, but Japan’s lost decade is perhaps most relevant. This is not because of the way the two crises developed – we do not yet know what will happen to us – but because of our failure to learn from Japan’s mistakes. Otto von Bismarck said only fools would learn from their own mistakes, while he preferred to learn from the mistakes of others. We are mostly fools.
I am particularly struck by the similarity of the policy responses in Japan then and Europe today. Adam Posen, deputy director of the Peterson Institute in Washington, made the following observation in a book* he published in 2000 about the parallels between Japan’s lost decade and US policy during the savings and loan crisis. He wrote: “Bank regulators issued a litany of announcements meant to be reassuring about the extent of the bad loan problem and the adequacy of Japanese banks’ capital, each of which was correctly disbelieved by other financial firms, foreign banks, and by Japanese savers as understating the problem.”
This is exactly what is happening in Europe today. Governments are not coming clean on the scale of the crisis. Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German newspaper, recently revealed an internal memo from Bafin, the country’s banking regulator, showing the estimated scale of write-offs would be more than €800bn ($1,061bn, £712bn), about a third of Germany’s annual gross domestic product. By comparison, the entire capital and reserves of its monetary and financial institutions were only €441.5bn in February. If the leaked number is true, it would mean the German financial system is broke.
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4 comments:
E há alguns que me parece que 'aprenderam' demais.
China's banks in loans dilemma
By Olivia Chung
May 2, 2009
HONG KONG - China's big state-owned banks, faced with increasing amounts of bad loans as borrowers go bust in a slowing economy, are being trapped in a dilemma created by conflicting government demands.
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Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasis the potential rise of non-performing loans, saying that if all the 4.58 trillion yuan of first-quarter new loans were spent, the economy should have been close to overheating already.
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Increased provisioning for bad loans and narrowing interest margins were the main reasons behind the profit plunge in Chinese banks, Bonnie Lai, an analyst with CCB International Securities.
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Olivia Chung is a senior Asia Times Online reporter.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KE02Cb01.html
Copiam, copiam e copiam...
China's copycars: familiar-looking vehicles at Shanghai Auto 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/picturegalleries/5208546/Chinas-copycars-familiar-looking-vehicles-at-Shanghai-Auto-2009.html
E já não é só os modelos dos carros mas, até os simbolos das marcas.
Veja o simbolo da Bentley made in China.
"Copiam, copiam e copiam..."
Copiar faz parte da idiossincrasia chinesa. Copiar um mestre é honrar o mestre. Li isto há tempos na revista Única do Expresso.
Mas não se retire disto a ideia que a cultura chinesa não tem raízes profundas. Tem, e são multimilenárias.
E os chineses não se limitam a copiar.Também inovam, e muito.
Rui
Não precisa defender os chineses.
Quem sou eu para criticar quem quer que seja.
Apenas, estava a chamar a atenção para ocorrências que me parecem preocupantes e que, na minha fraca opinião, me parecem demonstrar que o Homem aprende pouco com os própios erros ou com os dos outros.
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