Sunday, December 14, 2008

AINDA BEM À FRENTE

1. The United States has lost its competitive edge.
Not by a long shot. By almost any measure, the United States continues to outperform other countries around the globe (including rising giants China and India) in such areas as innovation, technology, higher education, worker training, the ability of the labor force to move from job to job, and more. Just this fall, the Swiss-based
World Economic Forum released its latest global competitiveness report, and once again, the United States easily topped the list. The study noted that despite the current financial turmoil, the United States is blessed with strong productivity and can "ride out business-cycle shifts and economic shocks" better than other countries.
2. The United States long ago gave up its global lead in manufacturing to China.
Not yet. Yes, U.S. production plummeted this fall, and yes, the domestic auto industry -- the poster child for America's aging manufacturing infrastructure -- will never return to the output it could manage a decade ago. But even with all this grim news, the United States has held onto its manufacturing lead -- particularly in such key sectors as pharmaceuticals and aerospace, in which it produces almost 25 percent of the world's output, according to the
World Bank.
3. The U.S. economy is about to be eclipsed by China's.
Not for some time to come. The World Bank estimates that global GDP last year was more than $56 trillion dollars. The United States contributed almost $14 trillion (or 25 percent) of that amount. China's total economy amounted to a bit more than $3 trillion.
4. The United States is no longer the economic engine of world trade.
Not true. For three decades now, we have amassed staggering trade deficits, amounting to several trillion dollars (and growing), but U.S. consumers have still helped add substantially to the growth of most countries around the world.
When it comes to imports, of course, the United States buys far more products from overseas than either China or Germany. But in terms of exports, all three countries are closely bunched together, at just over $1 trillion each. There is simply no country, now or in the immediate future, that can replace the United States' sheer global buying power.
5. The United States is no longer an attractive market for investment.
Hardly. Investments here are transparent, well protected and have a long track record of healthy returns. So even with
Wall Street reeling, the United States is a compelling place to invest. Of course, today's liquidity crisis originated here, but the value of the U.S. dollar has risen dramatically over the past few weeks, and foreign investors have flocked to U.S. investments and financial instruments as a (relatively) safe haven amid global uncertainties. No wonder the United States attracted more than $2 trillion worth of foreign direct investment last year, according to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. (The United Kingdom, Hong Kong and France -- the next three top finishers -- each registered just over $1 trillion.)

1 comment:

A Chata said...

Dream on, dream on...