As primárias nos EUA iniciam-se no Estado do Iowa no próximo dia 3 de Janeiro. Tradicionalmente, o candidato vencedor no Iowa tem sido vencedor depois, na maior parte dos casos, das eleições presidenciais.
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Mas o sistema de apuramento do vencedor democrata no Iowa está longe de ser facilmente entendível mesmo para os norte-americanos em geral e para muitos habitantes do Iowa em particular. O processo decorre em votação aberta através da formação de grupos que suportam os diferentes candidatos, passando-se, ou não, para outros candidatos os apoiantes daqueles que não estão a conseguir os mínimos (15% das presenças em cada distrito de voto). O sistema, que vem desde 1846, obriga, portanto, ao cálculo repetido das percentagens atingidas por cada bloco (caucus) votante em cada momento. Só no fim do dia, e após laboriosas contagens é apurado o vencedor.
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No caso de empate entre os dois finalistas a decisão é tomada por moeda ao ar.
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Para já, Obama, do lado democrata, está posicionado à frente nas sondagens no Iowa. Em New Hampshire, onde se realizam daí a dois dias as primárias seguintes, as sondagens dão Hillary e Obama tecnicamente empatados.
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Caucus Math 101: Bring a Calculator
In Iowa, Exercising One's Right to Vote May Well Involve Some Head-Scratching
In Iowa, Exercising One's Right to Vote May Well Involve Some Head-Scratching
In Iowa, where the campaigning is up close and personal, the democracy is terribly complicated.
Much has been written about the Democratic caucuses and how they work -- how they're not like the primaries of other states, how you have to show up and stand in a corner for your candidate and then maybe stand in another corner if your candidate isn't "viable" (meaning, said candidate doesn't have at least 15 percent support among people in the room). And how each of the 1,781 precincts has a different number of delegates to award, and the number of delegates a candidate gets is proportional to the number of people who show up at a high school gym on a freezing night in January to stand in corners.
Hence the crazy math.
And we haven't even gotten to the various envelopes. And the filling in of bubbles. And the pink and yellow forms. And the fact that, once in a while, there's a tie, so folks have to toss a coin.
Those of us who long suspected that American democracy isn't quite as pure as our elementary school history books said will feel vindicated learning about the Iowa caucuses, which are about as byzantine an election process as can be. The caucuses are democracy via bureaucracy, a bizarre system that began with Iowa's statehood in 1846 but has been revised since. (It is only the Democratic caucuses that work this way, with standing in corners and algebra; the Republicans will caucus on the same night, but their process works more like a straw poll.)
Hence the crazy math.
And we haven't even gotten to the various envelopes. And the filling in of bubbles. And the pink and yellow forms. And the fact that, once in a while, there's a tie, so folks have to toss a coin.
Those of us who long suspected that American democracy isn't quite as pure as our elementary school history books said will feel vindicated learning about the Iowa caucuses, which are about as byzantine an election process as can be. The caucuses are democracy via bureaucracy, a bizarre system that began with Iowa's statehood in 1846 but has been revised since. (It is only the Democratic caucuses that work this way, with standing in corners and algebra; the Republicans will caucus on the same night, but their process works more like a straw poll.)
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