Floods in Pakistan have left millions homeless and at least one-fifth of the country inundated. In Russia, droughts have sparked wildfires that sent crippling smog over main cities, claiming scores of lives while destroying crops and costing billions of dollars in damage.
The extreme weather of 2010 is likely to be remembered in these regions for many years to come. There as well as in the rest of the world, the broader question is whether, as climate scientists predict, this type of weather is set to become more common – and how certain we can be about that.
This has been an unusual year – the warmest January-June period on record around the world, and the driest on record in some regions. But however extreme, the events of one year cannot be taken as proof of climate change. Natural variability brings periodic extreme floods, droughts and heatwaves around the world, and it takes years of data to distinguish this from any underlying trend.
The most scientists are willing to say is that the weather in Pakistan and Russia is consistent with predictions of what will happen in a warming climate, driven by greenhouse gas increases.
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