O LOBO ENTRE NÓS?

Sucedem-se os artigos prognosticando o pior. Um dos mais lidos colunistas do Financial Times, Martin Wolf, enfileirava pelos alarmes de Nouriel Roubini, que aqui tenho transcrito algumas vezes. As perspectivas são cada vez mais negras. Sobreviverá o mundo financeiro e económico criado nas últimas décadas a este conjunto de ameaças que, de repente, se lhe atravessaram no caminho?

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É nestas ocasiões que me recordo sempre do Manel, o Escapeu, um pobre de espírito que não pronunciava o c: Sempre que ouvia notícias de que o mundo ia acabar, encolhia os ombros e suspirava:

Es ´ape eu!

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Mas o que é que, realmente, poderia fazer ele, pobre diabo, em tais circunstâncias?

O que podemos fazer, nós, os que nos julgamos com alguma consciência do que nos envolve? Abrir o chapéu-de-chuva, se chover.

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America’s economy risks mother of all meltdowns



“I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth – lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy.” Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.

That used to be Mr Greenspan’s view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University’s Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.

Recently, Professor Roubini’s scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is “a rising probability of a ‘catastrophic’ financial and economic outcome”**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: “A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe.”

Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 – yes, 12 – steps to financial disaster.
Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

By Martin Wolf
Published: February 19 2008 18:21 Last updated: February 19 2008 18:21