Monday, October 06, 2008

TUDO A DESCER

Tudo descer, salvo o dólar.
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Ainda há bem pouco tempo, havia muita gente que culpava a quebra do dólar e os especuladores pela alta do preço do petróleo. Agora que o dólar ganha todos os dias terreno ao euro ao mesmo tempo que caem as cotações do petróleo em dólares confirma-se a mais elementar lei da economia: os preços das commodities são fundamentalmente o resultado da oferta e da procura.
Se esta cai por enfraquecimento do crescimento económico, a sustentação dos preços só pode observar-se por redução propositada ou forçada da oferta.
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Vamos a ver como reagem os carteis do petróleo a esta quebra induzida pela crise financeira que, inevitavelmente, se repercutirá na economia global. Para já, a recuperação do dólar compensa a perda nas cotações. Para quem tem muitos dos seus activos denominados em dólares (petrodólares ou chíndia dólares) esta recuperação do dólar tem um efeito valorizador desses activos, e esse facto potenciará a valorização da moeda norte-americana. Até ver.

1 comment:

A Chata said...

Costuma-se dizer, para descobrir o culpado deve procurar-se a quem o crime deu proveito.

China s trillion DOLLAR surplus

Analysis
By Steve Schifferes
BBC News economics reporter

China's currency is undervalued, say many of its trading partners
In November China will achieve a new milestone in its economic development when its total foreign exchange reserves reach $1 trillion (DOLLARs).
As of 1 October, China's central bank announced that its reserves were $987bn - and they are growing by $18bn each month.

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And China has mainly invested its foreign currency reserves in long-term US Treasury bonds and other government securities.
Brad Setser, a former US Treasury official, estimates that China now holds $700bn in US long-term bonds, enough to lower US long-term interest rates by 1.5% - which helped stimulate the recent housing boom.

OIL

China's dependence on imported oil increases
By Du Xiaoli (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-06-22 14:03
China's crude oil dependency will soon exceed 50 percent, said Dai Yande, deputy director-general of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission. In his opinion, this won't have great impact on the international oil price.
,,,
From January to May, China imported 67.43 million tons of crude oil, up 9.6 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, it exported 1.6 million tons, down 36.6 percent. China's total oil consumption reached 320 million tons last year and around 150 million tons were from imports. Experts predict China's crude oil imports will increase to over 160 million tons this year.
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In Dai's opinion, people shouldn't be fussy about where China gets its oil from, despite its crude oil dependency reaching 60 percent to 70 percent. "China's oil output is insufficient and it's not a bad thing to use foreign resources to support China's economic development," he said.

E não sou só eu com manias de conspiração,

The Chinese plot against capitalism
May 29th 2007
From Economist.com
An odd coupling of communism and private equity


CHINA'S secret plan to bring down capitalism, especially in America, has become a little less secret in the past week or so. One clue came with a brave piece of whistle-blowing; a second when China started deploying its huge arsenal of capital. Congress was right to worry, after all. Those cunning commies in Beijing have studied capitalism and found its Achilles' heel: corporate governance.
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First, the whistle-blower. Lynn Turner was director of research at Glass Lewis, a firm that advises institutional shareholders how to cast their proxy votes. Last week Mr Turner said he was leaving, five months after Glass Lewis was sold to Xinhua Finance, a Chinese financial-information firm. According to the Wall Street Journal, Mr Turner, a former chief accountant of the Securities and Exchange Commission, was worried about potential conflicts of interest with other Xinhua businesses, and by “another potentially troubling aspect: Xinhua once had ties to China’s Communist Party”.
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Even now, lists of useless directors to be imposed on corporate America are being drawn up in Beijing (though The Economist hears that the Chinese leadership is split over whether it can do more damage to capitalism by voting to pay corporate bosses less, or by sending their salary packages to ever more preposterous heights).
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This is only the beginning. A Chinese wall of money will be on its way, once the Blackstone precedent has been set. Hiding behind the bland language of “diversifying foreign-exchange reserves”, China plans to deploy abroad at least 40% of its $1.2 trillion reserves. As the Financial Times has pointed out: “to invest that you would have to buy more than 10% of the capitalisation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.”
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Dollar valorizado, petroleo a baixar, empresas ocidentais controladas e sistema financeiro na falência.
Ainda acha que isto é globalização?
Talvez seja, mas, eu diria antes que estamos globalmente nas mãos da China.