O DILEMA INGLÊS

Mais de metade dos britânicos quer que o Reino Unido saia da União Europeia.

A União Europeia vai mal. A Zona Euro está ameaçada de desintegração, e se se desmorona, todo o edifício da União vai abaixo. A teoria da demolição controlada das partes mais fragilizadas, já ninguém a compra. As estruturas encontram-se demasiadamente interligadas para se retirar uma vigota sem derrubar uma coluna. A dúvida é se os líderes europeus, leia-se alemães e companhia do norte,  vão encontrar a tempo meios para evitar o desmoronamento, com as consequências, que podem ser dramáticas, porque podem degenerar num conflito bélico alargado. Se tal ocorrer, a Alemanha será, outra vez, a principal responsável, mas ingleses e franceses, mas sobretudo os primeiros, não escaparão a responsabilidades nem às consequências.  

Os povos precisam muitas vezes de causas exteriores para justificar os seus insucessos colectivos. A ameaça externa origina movimentos de união no seio de sociedades que, de outro modo, se desintegrariam em consequência de razões predominantemente internas. A União Europeia não tem inimigos externos, as ameaças à sua estabilidade e  continuidade são internas, mas das consequências dramáticas de uma eventual desintegração não se escaparão aqueles que primeiro abandonarem o edifício. Porque, se ele desabar, atingirá mesmo aqueles que, morando na vizinhança, nunca lá entraram .

O império britânico dissolveu-se, das glórias da Great Albion já sobra pouco mais que a City, e a velha senhora olha agora embevecida para o outro lado do Atlântico. Apesar de sempre ter mantido um pé dentro e um pé fora da União Europeia, os ingleses, num momento em que o edifício mostra brechas profundas, irão ameaçando que saem mas não saem, a menos que o edifício desabe, e saiam todos.

Fora do euro, o Reino Unido não tem observado uma evolução que, pela positiva, o distinga da zona euro, quando considerada globalmente. E tem evoluído pior que todos os membros do norte da Europa. Não podem, portanto, os britânicos queixar-se do euro porque nem o usam nem o suportam. Aliás, há alguns meses atrás, a senhora Merkel lembrou isso mesmo ao senhor Cameron quando este pretendeu participar em reuniões do eurogrupo.

A turbulência europeia, e nomeadamente na zona euro, é o bode expiatório que os ingleses precisam para justificar os seus próprios desaires na área económica. Se saem, ficam sem bode.

A CULPA DAS CALÇAS

A economia britânica volta a entrar em recessão

O euro é geralmente considerado um dos culpados e vítima da crise que ameaça desmoronar a União Europeia. É inquestionável que uma moeda forte exige outros factores de competitividade que compensem e ultrapassem o handicap da valorização cambial em sectores em que o preço é determinante. A competição sustentada numa guerra de preços  acabará sempre por ser ganha por aqueles que disponham de outros argumentos. Aconteceu em Portugal  com o encerramento definitivo ou  a deslocalização de empresas de baixa tecnologia para outras bases mais competitivas. 

Mas, o Reino Unido? O que se passa com a economia britânica, transaccionada na sua própria moeda, susceptível de ajustar-se  e garantir alguma competitividade monetária. 

Não é caso único na União Europeia, onde há situações para todas as justificações plausíveis. Há países da Zona Euro com balanças comerciais superavitárias (a Alemanha é o caso mais flagrante), mas há também a Grécia, Portugal, Espanha, a Irlanda, até a França com problemas de défices incontroláveis ou em vias disso. Fora da Zona Euro, o Reino Unido não está confortável e a Hungria está em situação muito problemática.

Que conclusão pode retirar-se da amostra?

Que não é a água tónica que embriaga mas os espíritos que se misturam com ela.

A EUROPA SUSPENSA

Leio no Público online que os líderes dos países da União Europeia (UE) falharam, esta madrugada, um acordo para a revisão do Tratado de Lisboa, destinada a incluir um novo “pacto orçamental”, obrigando os 17 membros do euro a avançar para o mesmo objectivo com um acordo intergovernamental.

Cameron já havia avisado que não contassem com ele para subscrever uma revisão ao Tratado de Lisboa que alterasse as regras europeias de regulação dos serviços financeiros.

Sarkozy já se tinha publicamente confrontado com Cameron. Muito significativo da distância que separa o governo britânico dos restantes membros da União Europeia foi resumido por Sarkozy:  “Para aceitar uma reforma dos tratados a 27, Cameron pediu – o que nós todos considerámos inaceitável –, um protocolo no Tratado para exonerar o Reino Unido de um certo numero de regras sobre os serviços financeiros” ( ). “Não pudemos aceitar porque consideramos, pelo contrário, que uma parte dos problemas do mundo vem da desregulação dos serviços financeiros”.

Merkel já tinha antecipado a possibilidade de um pacto orçamental envolvendo apenas os países da Zona Euro. A Cimeira, até agora e salvo novidades de última hora, não trouxe nada de novo mas confirmou o que já era conhecido de forma avulsa: O novo “pacto orçamental” obrigará os subscritores a assumir nas respectivas constituições o objectivo do equilíbrio orçamental – medido por um défice estrutural limitado a 0,5% do PIB – e de uma dívida inferior a 60% do PIB, verificado pelo Tribunal de Justiça da UE. Os países que se desviem destes objectivos serão sujeitos a sanções decididas de forma mais expedita. Cameron, a este propósito, fez saber que não aceitará que os institutos europeus, e nomeadamente o Tribunal de Justiça da UE, sejam utilizados para fins não estipulados no Tratado de Lisboa. 
 
Primeiro prognóstico: O Reino Unido iniciou a sua saída da União Europeia.
Segundo: Quanto aos outros, como a política de sansões defendida por Merkel não funcionará se o BCE continuar impedido de acalmar os mercados através da possibilidade de intervir como qualquer banco central, a sua permanência ou a sua saída do euro continuam em suspenso como até agora.
Terceiro: Se continuar a escalada das taxas de juro, haverá, certamente, nova cimeira antes de Março.  

NO FIO DA NAVALHA

King at odds with ECB on eurozone crisis

By Daniel Pimlott

Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, warned on Friday that stopgap measures to extend new loans to countries such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland would not solve the eurozone debt crisis.

Presenting the Bank’s first analysis of financial stability in the UK banking system since taking over those responsibilities from the Financial Services Authority, he said the eurozone debt crisis was a crisis of solvency that would not be resolved by extending new loans.

“Right through this crisis from the very beginning ... an awful lot of people wanted to believe that it was a crisis of liquidity,” Mr King said. “It wasn’t, it isn’t. And until we accept that, we will never find an answer to it. It was a crisis based on solvency ... initially financial institutions and now sovereigns.”

The views of Mr King put him at odds with the ECB and eurozone governments which have extended hundreds of billions of euros in bail-outs to Greece, Ireland and Portugal in an attempt to solve the crisis.

But these countries have been faced with contracting economies as austerity measures introduced as conditions of the bail-outs have curtailed economic development and made it harder for the likes of Greece and Ireland to cope with their debts.

The European Central Bank, the IMF and governments in the eurozone are currently in talks about extending a €12bn aid payment to Greece to avoid inflicting a default on holders of Greek bonds that could reinflame the financial crisis.

“Providing liquidity can only be used to buy time,” Mr King said. “Simply the belief, ‘oh we can just lend a bit more’, will never be an answer to a problem which is essentially one about solvency.”

Mr King said that the eurozone debt crisis posed the biggest threat to the UK banking system but he noted that the risk was indirect because banks’ exposure to Greece was “remarkably small”.

The UK banking sector is less exposed to Greece than some of its continental peers, including France and Germany. Royal Bank of Scotland, still 83 per cent owned by the UK taxpayer, holds €1.1bn worth of Greek sovereign debt, while HSBC holds €800m, according to Barclays Capital. That compares with a direct sovereign exposure of €5bn at France’s BNP Paribas, and nearly €3bn at Germany’s Commerzbank.

The European Banking Authority is due to release country-by-country sovereign debt exposure for 90 EU big banks in mid-July as part of its stress tests.

The Bank governor said greater disclosure was needed by banks of their exposure to sovereign and banking debt.

He recommended that smaller banks, excluded from EU stress tests, should gather more data on sovereign and banking debt exposure.

In its analysis, the Financial Policy Committee, the new body charged with overseeing the financial system, said that authorities needed to maintain a closer eye on complex and opaque financial instruments, such as exchange traded funds, that banks are using to raise funds.

Speaking at a European Council summit in Brussels to discuss a solution to the Greek debt crisis, David Cameron, UK prime minister, said: “Every bank needs to make absolutely clear what its exposure is [to European sovereign debt].

“As I have said, and secured in these Council conclusions, we need to make sure all our banks are being strengthened in terms of their capital reserves and what they can withstand.”

The report also said that banks should give more information on the extent of forbearance currently being given to the household and corporate sector.

The Bank has been asked to take on additional financial stability roles by the coalition government, including absorbing the FSA into its structure. The reforms vastly extend the Bank’s reach and responsibility in the UK economy and financial sector.

DANÇA COM CÂMBIOS

Dollar suffers as risk appetite returns
By Peter Garnham

A turbulent week on the currency markets pushed the dollar and yen lower as risk appetite made a tentative return.

This weighed on haven demand for both the US and Japanese currencies at the end of the week.

It was a different story early in the week as concerns over the eurozone debt crisis, and Spanish banks in particular, weighed on global equities and hit confidence. Those concerns were exacerbated by rising hostility between North and South Korea.

But world equities regained their poise from Wednesday. Analysts said there was a heightened belief that Asian economies and the US could decouple from the problems in Europe. “The theory of a decoupling of the rest of the world from the problems in the eurozone seems to be taking hold, following the theory frequently heard in 2008 of the emerging markets decoupling themselves from the recession of the industrialised world,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, at Commerzbank.

He said the reasoning was clear: the exposure of the financial systems in Asia and the US to the stricken countries of the eurozone was small and economic effects were small as Asia, not Europe, was the engine of the global recovery.

“It makes no difference short-term whether the decoupling theory is correct or not,” said Mr Leuchtmann. “If that is the reason behind concerns being overcome, then the currencies that are considered to be high risk will benefit.”

Commodity-linked currencies, which are highly sensitive to the prospects for global growth, rallied sharply.

Over the week, the Australian dollar rose 1.9 per cent to $0.8481 against the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar gained 1.2 per cent to C$1.0467. The dollar dropped 0.4 per cent to $1.4528 against the pound.

The dollar did advance against the yen and the Swiss franc, which have benefited from haven demand driven by the bout of turbulence on global markets. Over the week, the dollar rose 1.1 per cent to Y91.01 against the yen and 0.3 per cent to SFr1.1529 against the Swiss franc.

The dollar also advanced against the euro as the fiscal problems in the eurozone continued to weigh on the single currency.

The euro dropped to a low of $1.2152 on Thursday, just above the four-year trough of $1.2142 it hit last week, after an article in the Financial Times said China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages the country’s vast foreign exchange reserves, was concerned over its exposure to peripheral eurozone government debt. This raised speculation that China might be reviewing its policy of diversifying its reserves away from the dollar and into the euro, a big source of support for the single currency in recent years.

The euro staged a rally after China reiterated its commitment to investing in the eurozone. But analysts were unconvinced.

“It would be silly to think that recent events in the eurozone have not changed and won’t change China’s behaviour at all,” said Alan Ruskin at RBS. “No serious investor can be inured to the chilling events at the eurozone’s periphery and its repercussions for long-term confidence in the single currency.”

Over the week, the euro fell 1.7 per cent to $1.2361 against the dollar and dropped 2.1 per cent to £0.8509 against the pound.

PIIGSU

PIIGS, o acrónimo que os britânicos inventaram para, perjurativamente, designarem os países mais endividados e com maiores défices nas suas contas públicas (Portugal, Irlanda, Itália, Grécia e Espanha) tem de ser actualizado, considerando o que já se sabia e anotei aqui, e que continua a ser notícia:

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Unicredit has alerted investors that Britain is at a serious bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece.

The Italian-German group, Europe's second largest bank, said Britain's tax structure will make it hard to raise fresh revenue quickly enough to restore confidence in UK public finances.
"I am becoming convinced that Great Britain is the next country that is going to be pummelled by investors," said Kornelius Purps, Unicredit 's fixed income director and a leading analyst in Germany.

Mr Purps said the UK had been cushioned at first by low debt levels but the pace of deterioration has been so extreme that the country can no longer count on market tolerance.
"Britain's AAA-rating is highly at risk. The budget deficit is huge at 13pc of GDP and investors are not happy. The outgoing government is inactive due to the election. There will have to be absolute cuts in public salaries or pay, but nobody is talking about that," he told The Daily Telegraph.
"Sterling is going to fall further over coming months. I am not expecting a crash of the gilts market but we may see a further rise in spreads of 30 to 50 basis points."
Yields on 10-year gilts have already crept up to 4.14pc, compared to 3.94pc for Italian bonds, 3.48pc for French bonds, and 3.19pc for German Bunds, though part of this reflects worries about higher inflation in Britain.
Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, said markets are fretting over how the UK will cover its deficit following the pause in quantitative easing by the Bank of England. The Bank has absorbed £200bn of debt, more than total Treasury issuance over the last year.

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TURBULÊNCIAS

Currencies Trading All Over the Map: Wild Swings Confuse Investors, Hamper Trade

By Anthony Faiola

Currencies including the dollar and the euro have entered a period of extreme volatility that is hindering global commerce and adding further uncertainty to a world economy facing its worst downturn in decades.
Over the past several months, global exchange rates have taken some of their wildest swings in years, with a fresh bout of zigzags hitting an array of currencies in both rich and poor countries in the past few weeks. That has humbled some of the strongest and most time-honored of coins, like the British pound, while fortifying others, like the Japanese yen.
Many currencies are shifting directions like a sailboat in a storm, causing unpredictable shifts in exchange rates that are further worsening the outlook for global trade as they confront buyers and sellers of internationally traded goods with another ill besides slumping demand: rapidly changing prices.
Over the past seven days alone, for instance, the Australian dollar shed nearly 10 percent against the Swiss franc. That means an Australian steel company with a contract to sell beams to, say, a Swiss construction company would be forced to take a significant haircut on those sales. As a result of the swings, exporters from Brazil to Baltimore say they are pushing for shorter-term contracts and boosting their purchases of foreign exchange hedges.
"Honestly, we just don't know how to analyze these currency markets properly right now," confessed David Bloom, head of currency markets for HSBC in London. "We're now in an unconventional world where you're getting huge movements that are no longer grounded in the conventional models. So currencies are lurching this way and that, and it's creating a huge uncertainty."

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MADE IN ENGLAND

A desvalorização da libra contra o euro aumentará a competitividade das exportações britânicas e fará sair o Reino Unido da crise antes dos outros países da Zona Euro.

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Mas que exportações levam a etiqueta "Made in England" ou "Made in UK"?
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Euro avança 20% contra a libra em dois meses

A moeda única da Zona Euro seguia a valorizar contra a libra, acumulando já um ganho de 20% em dois meses. Os receios de um acentuar da deterioração económica no Reino Unido e o diferencial de juros praticado entre as duas regiões têm sido os responsáveis por este desempenho.
Aprovação de crédito à habitação no Reino Unido atinge valor mais baixo desde 1999

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When will Sterling hit Euro parity?

Edward Harrison Dec 31, 2008
I caught a good article in today’s Guardian about the British Pound. The question is: how weak will Sterling get? My answer is below 1-to-1 with the Euro. But before I tell you why, let me interject a blurb from the article.
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GORDON E OS BANQUEIROS

Gordon Brown diz que está "zangado" com os executivos dos bancos

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/index.php?template=SHOWNEWS&id=346494

O primeiro ministro inglês, Gordon Brown, afirmou que se encontra “zangado” com os executivos dos bancos pelo papel que estes tiveram no despoletar da crise financeira. O responsável divulgou também algumas medidas que vão ser adoptadas para o próximo ano para estimular a economia.“Eu estou zangado, zangado por termos um sistema bancário onde as pessoas não sabem os riscos que estão a tomar ou onde não são abertos o suficiente quanto aos problemas que têm”, referiu Brown numa entrevista ao “Daily Mirror” citada pela Bloomberg.O primeiro ministro inglês referiu ainda que “se não tivesses agido há umas semanas os bancos teriam simplesmente entrado em colapso.”Para o próximo ano Gordon Brown anunciou alguns planos dos que vão ser divulgados em Janeiro como medidas para estimular a economia. Entre eles está a construção de novas escolas, a reconstrução das que se encontram em pior estado e ainda o objectivo de reforçar a rede de Internet de alta velocidade britânica. A crise de crédito está a levar o Reino Unido para a primeira recessão desde 1991, aumentando o número de desempregados e levando a uma redução das despesas dos consumidores. Em Novembro o número de britânicos a pedir subsídios de desemprego foi o mais elevado dos últimos 17 anos.

CONTOS AMERICANOS : O EURO

A Painful Exchange

Americans' Pocketbooks Pinched by Euro, Pound

By John Ward AndersonWashington Post Foreign ServiceSaturday, December 9, 2006; Page D01

PARIS, Dec. 8 -- It didn't take long for sticker shock to hit Allan and Christine Britton.
Twenty minutes after arriving in Paris for a brief layover between the United States and South Africa, they were standing at the foot of the Eiffel Tower, checking out the menu at the Jules Verne Restaurant: sea bass, $78; filet of beef, $77; lobster, $106; dessert, $25.
"Everything I see here is expensive -- even the train in from the airport was expensive," said Allan Britton, who runs a textile company in Meriden, N.H. With a shrug, the couple padded off in search of something more reasonable.
The tanking dollar, which recently hit a 20-month low against the euro and a 14-year low against the British pound, has Americans who live or travel in Europe gulping harder, digging deeper and shelling out painful amounts of money.
The $9 soda, the $5 espresso and the $30 taxi ride are commonplace. Dinner for four at a pizza joint for $100 is starting to leave a bad taste in Yankee mouths.
"The poor dollar," moaned George Bernauer, a retired school teacher from the Boston area and regular visitor to Europe, as he headed into the Louvre museum. "Five euros" -- that would be $6.65 -- "for a can of Coke; it's outrageous."
The greenback is taking one of its worst beatings ever in Europe, with high U.S. trade and budget deficits, low personal savings, the burst of the U.S. housing bubble and threats of a recession driving down the value of the dollar overseas, particularly in Europe, where economic growth is picking up.
On Friday, it took $1.32 to buy one euro, a fall in value of about 13 percent on the year and approaching the record of $1.36 in December 2004.
Many analysts think the drubbing is going to get worse.
"Our bank is bearish about the currency. In our latest report, we expect the dollar will be at $1.40 against the euro at the end of the first quarter next year," said Philippe d'Arvisenet, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Paris.
Others are much more pessimistic, d'Arvisenet said, with some warning that the dollar's value against the euro could fall as far as $1.90 if Asian governments and developing countries get spooked by continuing declines and decide to sell off their huge dollar reserves.
"If they abandon the dollar, it could cause a global recession, and the dollar could go through the floor," d'Arvisenet said. "It would be counterproductive for everyone. So we rule this out. But maybe we're wrong.
The dollar is doing even worse against the pound, down about 15 percent this year. On Friday, it took $1.95 to buy one pound, a 14-year-low that approached the psychological 2-to-1 exchange rate barrier.
For practical purposes, that rate is already here, said Krystal Dunn, 21, an economics student from Battle Creek, Mich., who is studying for the year at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland.

"Every time I go to the grocery store, I simply multiply by two," said Dunn, who was making her first visit to Paris on Friday. She recently wanted to buy a paperback book and was astounded at the price: 13 pounds, or about $25.60.
Her schoolmate, Mary Christie, 20, an art history major from Indianapolis, had a different way of doing dollar-to-pound calculations. She noted that nominal prices are roughly the same in Britain and the United States, with a shirt that would sell for $50 in the United States typically going for 50 pounds in Britain. After the currency exchange, that is nearly $100.
"My parents came over for a visit and it was like, 'Man, it is so much more expensive here,' " she said.
Americans who live in Europe tend to adjust to the local currency after a while "and are less sensitive to the day-to-day movement in the dollar," said Michael Willisch, 38, an American lawyer who has lived in Madrid for six years.
When euro banknotes were introduced on Jan. 1, 2002, one euro was worth 89 cents. "That was when it was time to buy apartments and things like that," Willisch said. Now, he said, the "big-ticket items" in particular seem out of whack.
"With local taxes, and then if you do the currency conversion, a BMW that sells in the high 30s in the U.S. sells in the high 40s in Spain," he said.
It is unclear whether the plunging dollar is discouraging Americans from traveling to Europe or simply pinching them harder when they get here.
For example, statistics show that the number of Americans traveling to Paris last year, the most recent year for which data are available, was 23.4 percent lower than in 2000, the year before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Some analysts said that indicated factors other than the currency were discouraging American visitors.
"I think it could partly be the ill feeling between the two countries; some Americans may have chosen not to come out of spite," said Alice Grevet, an official at the Association of American Residents Overseas in Paris. "But I also think even getting on an airplane is not as carefree as it used to be, so what's going on in the world is a huge contributor."
But a 2005 report by the French Parliament found a strong correlation between currency rates and American tourism, saying there was a "surge of American tourists" when the dollar was strong; when it was weak, fewer Americans came, they stayed a shorter time and they spent less.
Alex Zivoder, managing director of the online travel company Expedia France, said that the number of Americans traveling to Europe in the first half of the year with his firm was up 25 percent over the same period the year before, but that the growth had slowed since summer. "That seems to be linked probably to the exchange rate, but it is very difficult to say," he said.
While the British press has reported high numbers of Britons flying to the United States recently looking for Christmas shopping bargains, Zivoder said the number of Frenchmen traveling to the United States this year has remained flat.